Due to NWS requirements for guidance over all 50 states, as well as increased hardware and data availability, we are redeveloping the system and have given this analysis, modelling, and prediction system the more appropriate name Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). This system will be implemented centrally on the NWS mainframe computer, and the output will be furnished in much the same way as Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Aviation Model (AVN). LAMP will run every hour and furnish guidance at hourly intervals.
The main thrust of LAMP, in addition to its furnishing updated, timely MOS guidance for all weather elements, will be improved forecasts for aviation. Inputs will include radar and satellite data on a 10-km grid and output from a small scale dynamic model, as well as METAR observations and MOS forecasts. For the early projections (e.g., 1 and 2 hours) the forecasts will be heavily influenced by persistence and advective fields. At the longest projections, the update forecasts will fair into the MOS. At mid-projections, statistics will furnish an optimum blend of all inputs.
The main improvements over the current LAMP are that it will:
1) be implemented for all 50 states and Puerto Rico 2) produce guidance hourly rather than every 3 hours 3) have additional data inputs 4) be based on AVN MOS rather than Limited-area Fine Mesh Model (LFM) MOS 5) have improved statistical techniques 6) run on a 10-km grid, rather than an 80-km grid 7) produce guidance for about 1500 stations rather than 950 8) produce gridded thunderstorm guidance
The guidance from LAMP will assist forecasters in updating Interactive Forecast Preparation System(IFPS)/National Digital Forecast Database(NDFD) grids on an event, rather than 6-h cycle time, basis. Differences between the current and new LAMP will be detailed.