Wednesday, 14 January 2004
The experimental seasonal forecast and recent implementation of NCEP RSM
The NCEP RSM has been conducted experimental seasonal forecasts since October 2002. There are five members of ensemble forecast up to 4-month integration and 21 members of hindcasts for the past years (1979-1999) up to 4-month integration, for each month. All member is nested into the operational seasonal forecast model (SFM) with resolution of 60 km over CONUS. The results are shown in the web page of http://nomad2.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/web_rsm.sh/, and the monthly mean data can be downloaded. The results have not only monthly forecast from RSM but also from SFM, the anomalies of them are also shown in the web. The performance of the predictability is under investigation.
The recent activities of the NCEP RSM will be implemented into the seasonal forecast. The operational version of NCEP RSM which supports the activities of regional short range forecast in the operational suite has been improved with new model physics from the operational global forecast system (GFS), and the faster version of MPI implementation. A collaborated project with CPC has some improvements on RSM for seasonal forecast, such as physical perturbation to eliminate large-scale bias. It can be implemented into the seasonal forecast. All these activities will be presented.