Program: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (84th AMS Annual Meeting)

SAT 10 JAN

Short Course/Student Conference Registration

SUN 11 JAN

Short Course Registration

Conference Registration

Mon 12 Jan

Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January

1

Opening Session (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Edward L. Bensman; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Papers:

9:00 AM

1.1

MODIS Winds in NAVDAS

Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Pauley

Poster PDF (58.7 kB)

9:15 AM

1.2

Applying the new Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to National Weather Service forecast office operations

Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Smart, J. McGinley, M. Kay, J. Mahoney, P. Welsh, P. Bogenschutz, P. Ruscher, J. Savadel, and A. Wildman

Poster PDF (124.0 kB)

9:30 AM

1.3

Grid-Based Bias Removal For Mesoscale Model Forecasts

Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed

9:45 AM

1.4

Verification of NDFD Gridded Forecasts in the Western United States

John D. Horel, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Colman and M. Jackson

Poster PDF (929.7 kB)

10:00 AM

1.0a

Welcoming Remarks: Ed Bensman and Mary Cairns, Program Co-chairpersons

Joint Session 1

Data Assimilation and Observational Network Design. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Organizers: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL; Antonio Busalacchi, University of Maryland; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC

Papers:

9:00 AM

J1.2

THORPEX: a Global Atmospheric Research Programme

Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO

9:30 AM

J1.3

Data assimilation with deterministic ensemble filters

Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO; and D. Parrish

9:45 AM

J1.4

Developments in ECMWF's 4D-Var system

Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and C. Cardinali, M. Fisher, E. Hólm, L. Isaksen, Y. Trémolet, and A. Hollingsworth

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (566.0 kB)

10:00 AM

J1.5

Lagrangian data assimilation and observing system design for ocean coherent structures

Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kuznetsov, H. Salman, and J. Yu

10:15 AM

J1.6

An analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations

Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

10:30 AM

J1.7

Observation-quality estimation and its application in NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast (RTFDDA) system

Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, S. Low-Nam, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin

Poster PDF (525.8 kB)

10:45 AM

J1.8

The effect of local initialization on Workstation ETA

Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos

Poster PDF (256.1 kB)

11:00 AM

J1.9

Short-range QPF over Korean Peninsula using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model & “Future Time” data assimilation based on rainfall nowcasting from GMS IR measurements

Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Ou

11:15 AM

J1.10

Evaluation of reduced-rank Kalman filters (RRKF)

Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. Hollingsworth

11:30 AM

J1.1a

Welcoming Remarks

11:45 AM

J1.4a

Coffee Break in Poster session room

Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room

4

Convection (ROOM 607)

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel

Papers:

10:45 AM

4.1

Convection in BAMEX during an active subtropical jet period

Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Galarneau, Jr.

Poster PDF (3.6 MB)

4.2

Toward understanding and predicting rapid changes in convective inhibition

11:15 AM

4.3

The impact of choice of convective scheme on synoptic features in the NCEP Eta model

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (508.8 kB)

11:30 AM

4.4

Evaluation of an Improved Convection Triggering Mechanism in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM2 Under CAPT Framework

Shaocheng Xie, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. S. Boyle, R. T. Cederwall, G. L. Potter, and M. Zhang

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (928.9 kB)

11:45 AM

4.5

Impact of Turbulent Liquid Water Flux on Cloud Microphysics in Mesoscale Models

Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt and J. C. Golaz

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (40.2 kB)

2

Analysis Techniques (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University

Papers:

10:45 AM

2.1

Snowin' to Beat The Band: Using Satellite Imagery and Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Output to Diagnose the Rapid Development of A Mesoscale Snow Band

David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and E. Vallier-Talbot

11:00 AM

2.2

Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. L. Haines, R. J. Suggs, T. Bradshaw, C. Darden, and J. E. Burks

Poster PDF (2.4 MB)

11:15 AM

2.3

A Fresh Look at Persistent Ridging in the North Pacfic

John M. Papineau, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK

Poster PDF (497.4 kB)

11:30 AM

2.4

Impact of high resolution water vapor measurements from airborne lidar on hurricane characterization and forecasting

Edward V. Browell, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and S. Ismail, R. A. Ferrare, R. Kamineni, T. Krishnamurti, and S. Pattnaik

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

2.5

Assimilation of MODIS temperature and water vapor profiles into a mesoscale analysis system

Bradley T. Zavodsky, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Lazarus, P. F. Blottman, and D. W. Sharp

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (757.3 kB)

3

Verification Studies (ROOM 619/620)

Location: Room 619/620

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL

Papers:

10:45 AM

3.1

On the determination of forecast errors arising from different components of model physics and dynamics

T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Sanjay, A. K. Mitra, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.5 MB)

10:59 AM

3.2

Paper moved to Session 7, New Paper number 7.5A

11:00 AM

3.3

Ongoing assessment of GPS-IPW impact on RUC forecasts

Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and S. Sahm

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (977.8 kB)

11:15 AM

3.4

The impact of model resolution improvements and statistical forecast techniques on mesoscale prediction during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

Kenneth A. Hart, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, D. J. Onton, and A. J. Siffert

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

3.5

Validation of MM5 for evolution of cold fronts approaching the Gulf of Mexico

Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and K. Davenport

11:45 AM

3.2a

A Numerical Model Investigation of Intensity Forecast Error for Hurricane Lili (2002) (Formerly paper number 7.5)

Yi Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Liou

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

Lunch Break

Joint Session 2

Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Organizer: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative

Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative

Papers:

1:30 PM

J2.1

Reanalysis before radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation

Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill

Poster PDF (867.3 kB)

1:45 PM

J2.2

Satellite data assimilation over Hawaii

Tiziana Cherubini, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, R. Lyman, and R. Ogasawara

2:00 PM

J2.3

The impact of a wind-mass error analysis scheme on forecast skill

Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang and J. Guo

Poster PDF (570.5 kB)

2:15 PM

J2.4

A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model

Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and G. Gyarmati, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, A. V. Zimin, E. Kalnay, D. Patil, and J. A. Yorke

Poster PDF (260.0 kB)

5

Case Studies (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

1:30 PM

5.1

The St. Patrick’s Day Snowstorm, 2002, Anchorage, Alaska

Joel C. Curtis, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and J. M. Papineau, C. A. Scott, and K. Johnson

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (863.2 kB)

1:45 PM

5.2

Using low-level precipitable hydrometeor mixing ratios from the MM5 to determine precipitation type: Ohio valley cases from the 2002–2003 winter

Chris Smallcomb, NOAA/NWSFO, Reno, NV; and T. Sturey

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (335.3 kB)

1:59 PM

5.3

Paper 5.3 has been moved to Session 10, New Paper Number 10.3A

2:00 PM

5.4

Model Dynamic and Microphysical Verification of the 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE 2 Case

Matthew Garvert, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. A. Colle, C. Mass, and C. P. Woods

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

5.3a

Mesoscale model simulations in Quasi-forecast mode of the great western storm of 16–20 March 2003 (Formerly Paper Number 10.3)

Douglas A. Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and G. Poulos, J. Snook, E. Szoke, M. P. Meyers, G. Byrd, R. A. Rozumalski, and H. McIntyre

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (617.8 kB)

6

Model Output Statistics (MOS) (ROOM 619/620)

Location: Room 619/620

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Ronald Miller, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

1:30 PM

6.1

Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance for short-range projections

J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. C. Erickson and J. C. Maloney III

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (337.3 kB)

1:45 PM

6.2

Adjusting model output statistics (MOS) surface temperature forecasts using multiple linear regression and Kalman filtering

Andrew A. Taylor, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and M. B. Richman

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

6.3

Producing MOS Snowfall Amount Forecasts from Cooperative Observer Reports

Rebecca L. Cosgrove, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Sfanos

Poster PDF (166.3 kB)

2:15 PM

6.4

Are Model Output Statistics still needed?

Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA; and K. A. Hanson

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (267.3 kB)

Poster Session 1

Monday Posters

Location: Room 4AB

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

P1.1

Simulation of the 27 May 1997 central Texas tornadic storms: Cell development and the role of the preexisting boundary

Adam L. Houston, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. S. Gilmore and R. B. Wilhelmson

P1.2

Severe weather outbreak over Phoenix, Arizona, on 14 July 2002

G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and E. S. Pytlak

Poster PDF (2.6 MB)

P1.3

Role of Tropical Cyclone in Southern China on the Heavy Rainfall over Korea

Kye-Hwan Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong

Poster PDF (902.9 kB)

P1.4

Preliminary results of a real time, time to space conversion for surface analysis

James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt

Poster PDF (266.1 kB)

P1.5

Orographic effect on heavy rainfall in the east coast of the Korean Peninsula induced by a tropical cyclone

Seon K. Park, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea; and E. Lee, D. E. Chang, and L. Leslie

Poster PDF (695.8 kB)

P1.6

Winter storm forecasting as a two-step process: the 26–27 November 2001 snowstorm

Martin A. Baxter, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng, C. E. Graves, and J. T. Moore

Poster PDF (493.1 kB)

P1.7

Numerical modelling of the 31 May 1998 severe bow echo

James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt

Poster PDF (183.2 kB)

P1.8

Large scale regime transition and its relationship to significant cool season precipitation events in the Northeast

Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. Grumm

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

P1.9

Insights into Columbia Gorge Gap Flow through High Resolution Simulations of Actual and Idealized Events

Justin Sharp, PPM Energy, Portland, OR; and C. F. Mass

P1.10

Initial and Boundary Conditions for a Limited Area Ensemble Kalman Filter

Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim and C. Snyder

P1.11

Improved tropical cyclone prediction using 4-D variational assimilation of high-resolution satellite and radar data

Lance M. Leslie, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. F. LeMarshall

P1.12

Mesoscale variational assimilation of profiling radiometer data

Thomas Nehrkorn, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and C. Grassotti and R. Ware

Poster PDF (903.5 kB)

P1.13

Assimilation of ground-based GPS PWV with 3DVAR system for a IHOP case

Y.-R. Guo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Kusaka, D. M. Barker, Y. -. H. Kuo, and A. Crook

http://

Poster PDF (84.3 kB)

P1.14

Support of the Air Force Weather Agency's Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS) and Cloud Depiction Forecast System-II (CDFS-II): A Current Status Report

Fritz VanWijngaarden, Northrop Grumman Mission Systems, S. Bellevue, NE; and M. Kaufman, A. Ronn, and R. S. Penc

Poster PDF (794.9 kB)

P1.15

Verification of mesoscale modeling for the heavy rainfall event of May 12, 2000 over southern Ontario

Zuohao Cao, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada

P1.16

Using the COAMPS^TM adjoint modeling system to forecast a tropical cyclone

Clark M. Amerault, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou

Poster PDF (201.5 kB)

P1.17

Understanding the Analysis Error Pattern of a 3DVAR System Using Streamfunction and Velocity Potential

Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO

http://fsl.noaa.gov

Poster PDF (160.1 kB)

P1.18

Tools used in the analysis of tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall

P1.19

The Steepness Limit to Validity of Approximations to Pressure Gradient Force: any Signs of an Impact?

Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD

Poster PDF (472.9 kB)

P1.20

The RUC 3dvar: Operational performance and recent improvements

Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt

Poster PDF (129.9 kB)

P1.21

The planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast Pacific blocking using Potential Vorticity diagnostics

Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland

Poster PDF (522.0 kB)

P1.22

The Influence of Lake Michigan on a Wintertime Cold Front

Joseph G. Dreher, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich

Poster PDF (1007.4 kB)

P1.23

The Impact of Assimilating GPS-PW data using WRF-3DVAR on a Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP

Hiroyuki Kusaka, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and Y. R. Guo, A. Crook, D. M. Barker, and H. Hirakuchi

Poster PDF (417.6 kB)

P1.24

Terrain effetcs on the simulation of heavy rainfall occured at the Jiri mountain area of the Korean peninsula

Mee-Hyun Jo, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G. H. Lim

Poster PDF (249.7 kB)

P1.25

The global 3DVAR system of Korea Meteorological Administration

Sang-Won Joo, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and H. C. Shin and W. J. Lee

Poster PDF (199.7 kB)

P1.26

A Modification to the Bratseth Method of Successive Corrections for Complex Terrain

David T. Myrick, University of Utah, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel and S. M. Lazarus

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

P1.27

An evaluation of the precipitation distribution in landfalling tropical cyclones

Eyad H. Atallah, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (366.9 kB)

P1.28

Access to real-time and retrospective Numerical Weather Prediction models at the National Climatic Data Center and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Glenn K. Rutledge, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Alpert and W. T. Smith

Poster PDF (28.0 kB)

P1.29

A reanalysis of Hurricane Hazel (1954)

Scott R. Weese, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan and J. R. Gyakum

P1.30

A multi-scale analysis of the end of the millennium snowstorm

Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and A. C. Wasula and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P1.31

A Finite-Volume Mass- and Vorticity-conserving Solver of the Shallow-Water Equations on the Sphere using Penta-/Hexagonal Grids

William Sawyer, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland

P1.32

A different beast: An example of a major midlatitude cyclogenesis event over the Intermountain region of the Western United States

Jason C. Shafer, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and G. L. West

P1.33

A composite study of precipitation distribution in U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari

Poster PDF (2.0 MB)

P1.34

A Comparison of Satellite and Sounding Derived Cloud Top Temperatures

Scott D. Landolt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Bateman and B. C. Bernstein

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

P1.35

A 4DVAR Analysis of the Febraury 7–8, 2002 Oregon Cyclone

Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. Mass

P1.36

Impact of mesoscale data, cloud analysis on the explicit prediction of an MCS during IHOP 2002

Daniel T. Dawson II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P1.37

Are there weather holes? An objective analysis

Matthew D. Parker, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and J. C. Knievel

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P1.38

Generation of improved land-surface data for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie, J. Merchant, A. Taylor, C. Godfrey, and R. Bonifaz

P1.39

Flash flooding during a severe drought situation: a case study of the 2002 Ogallala, NE event

Mark R. Anderson, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and C. M. Rowe, D. B. Radell, and J. R. McCormick

Poster PDF (209.0 kB)

P1.40

Estimation of observation impact using the NAVDAS adjoint system

Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. Baker

P1.41

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season Numeical QPF be Improved?

William Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. Hoch, B. Shaw, and S. Dembek

P1.42

Data Assimilation using Weather Research and Forecasting Model: An Effort to Improve Fine-Scale Modeling

R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz, M. A. Askelsen, and L. Osborne

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)

P1.43

Convective Towers in Eyewalls of Tropical Cyclones Observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar in 1998–2001

Owen A. Kelley, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Stout

Poster PDF (388.4 kB)

P1.44

Cold season 500 hPa cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution and a case study

Anthony R. Fracasso, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. Evans

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P1.45

Coherent global intraseasonal oscillation deduced by CSEOF

Baek-Min Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G. H. Lim and K. Y. Kim

P1.46

Case studies of warm season cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution

Jessica S. Najuch, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. Wasula, and K. LaPenta

Poster PDF (613.2 kB)

P1.47

Assimilation of surface cloud, visibility, and current weather observations in the RUC

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, B. Schwartz, and W. R. Moninger

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

P1.48

Use of TMI and SSM/I data in JMA Operational Meso-Analysis

Yoshiaki Sato, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. Takeuchi and T. Tauchi

Poster PDF (627.6 kB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Joint Session 3

Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 3AB)

Location: Room 3AB

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Chair: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Data Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Code 910.3

Papers:

4:00 PM

J3.1

Hindcasts of the 2002 El Nino Event Made with a Coupled Model Initialized with a Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter

Christian L. Keppenne, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and N. P. Kurkowski

4:15 PM

J3.2

Physical initialization for the Regional Spectral Model

Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads and M. Kanamitsu

Poster PDF (959.5 kB)

4:30 PM

J3.3

Experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale data assimilation

C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Skamarock and D. Dowell

4:45 PM

J3.4

Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model

Mingjing Tong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Poster PDF (732.5 kB)

5:00 PM

J3.5

Ensemble-based data assimilation at a coastline

Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Epifanio, and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (935.4 kB)

5:15 PM

J3.6

Amelioration of bias in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA

7

Verification Studies: Part II (ROOM 619/620)

Location: Room 619/620

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Edward L. Bensman

Papers:

4:00 PM

7.1

Forecasters' evaluation of the Integrated Turbulence Forecast Algorithm (ITFA), winter 2003

Matthew Kelsch, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and C. Fischer and J. L. Mahoney

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (616.4 kB)

4:15 PM

7.2

Objective evaluation of NCEP/GFS precipitation forecast

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

4:30 PM

7.3

Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest United States during Winter 2002–2003 by the RSM Ensemble System

Huiling Yuan, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. M. H. Juang

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

7.4

Verification of the FSL ensemble of mesoscale models used for a winter weather application

Paul Schultz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (87.0 kB)

4:59 PM

7.5

Paper moved to Session 3, new paper number 3.2A

5:00 PM

7.6

A validation of the NCEP SREF

Andrew J. Hamm, Northland College, Ashland, WI; and K. L. Elmore

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (425.6 kB)

5:15 PM

7.5a

Comparing rawinsonde and model soundings to improve aircraft icing forecasts (Formerly Paper number 3.2)

Cory A. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (460.2 kB)

8

Case Studies: Part II (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin

Papers:

4:00 PM

8.1

A forecast strategy for anticipating cold season mesoscale band formation within developing extratropical cyclones

David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS/HPC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. S. Waldstreicher, L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

4:15 PM

8.2

Analysis of the Texas Norther: Case Study

Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (527.8 kB)

4:30 PM

8.3

The role of antecedent precipitation in the development of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. east coast snowstorm

Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Poster PDF (535.6 kB)

4:45 PM

8.4

Assessing the impact of meteorological conditions upon tornado evolution during 4 May 2003 tornado outbreak

Michael P. Seaman, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and G. Koch, M. Stoflet, and S. M. Fortin

5:00 PM

8.5

Diagnosis and Prediction of the 3–4 June 2002 Iowa-Illinois Flood

James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. A. Wolf, B. L. Mickelson, J. A. Zogg, and C. E. Graves

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

5:15 PM

8.6

March 12–13th, "Bora" Windstorm across much of South-Central Alaska

Carven A. Scott, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and S. E. Baines and J. P. Papineau

http://

Poster PDF (985.8 kB)

Sessions end for the Day

Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

Fred Sanders Banquet

TUE 13 JAN

Joint Session 4

Model Parameterization: Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL

Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL

Papers:

8:30 AM

J4.1

Stochastic model parameterizations: Motivation, Implementation, and Impact

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO

8:45 AM

J4.2

Modifications of two convective schemes used in the NCEP Eta Model

Brad S. Ferrier, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (101.2 kB)

9:00 AM

J4.3

Development of new physics parameterization schemes and their impacts on MM5 and WRF prediction of heavy rainfall over Korea during 2001-2002

Tae-Young Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and S. -. Y. Hong, Y. Noh, and H. -. Y. Chun

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

J4.4

Grid-size Dependence of Cumulus Parameterization

Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Y. Luo

Poster PDF (350.7 kB)

9:30 AM

J4.5

The applicability of a nonlocal turbulence parameterization at cloud resolving scales

Amanda S. Adams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (654.1 kB)

Joint Session 5

Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University

Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University

Papers:

8:30 AM

J5.1

A scheme for the characterization and synthesis of anisotropic background error covariances suitable for adaptive variational assimilation

R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD

Poster PDF (367.0 kB)

8:45 AM

J5.2

Assimilation experiments at NCEP designed to test quality control procedures and effective scale resolutions for QuikSCAT/SeaWinds data

T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and W. H. Gemmill

Poster PDF (58.1 kB)

9:00 AM

J5.3

3DVAR retrieval of 3D moisture field from slant-path water vapor observations of high-resolution hypothetical GPS network

Haixia Liu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Poster PDF (132.5 kB)

9:15 AM

J5.4

4D Ensemble Kalman filtering for assimilation of asynchronous observations

T. D. Sauer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. R. Hunt, J. A. Yorke, A. V. Zimin, E. Ott, E. J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (76.6 kB)

9:30 AM

J5.5

The Chemical Data Assimilation Algorithm in the MCNC/BAMS Real-Time Ozone Forecast System

Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry, D. Olerud, and R. E. Imhoff

Recorded presentation

Poster Session 2

Tuesday Posters

Location: Room 4AB

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

P2.1

Redistribution of angular momentum in a global forecast model due to change in drag parameterizations

Young-Joon Kim, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Hogan

Poster PDF (229.8 kB)

P2.2

The importance of moisture profile with vertical wind shear in the dynamics of mid-latitude squall lines

Tetsuya Takemi, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka, Japan

Poster PDF (601.1 kB)

P2.3

The impact of cloud microphysics on the surface solar radiation

Hsin-mu Lin, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Ferrier, Y. T. Hou, E. Rogers, K. E. Mitchell, M. B. Ek, and J. Meng

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/bf/presentations/Lin_SWR95_6-4-03.ppt

Poster PDF (737.7 kB)

P2.4

Sub-Grid Scale Mountain Blocking at NCEP

Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

Poster PDF (2.5 MB)

P2.5

Paper Moved to Session 17, New paper Number 17.5A

P2.6

Recent advances in supercell modeling

Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and D. J. Stensrud

P2.7

Prognostic ozone in NOGAPS

Douglas Allen, NRL, Washington, DC; and L. Coy, S. Eckermann, J. McCormack, T. Hogan, and Y. J. Kim

P2.8

The MURI Uncertainty Monitor (MUM)

David W. Jones, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. Joslyn

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P2.9

The operational implications of forecasting a heavy snow event over the central Rockies in an atypical flow regime

Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Grand Junction, CO; and J. D. Colton, R. L. McAnelly, W. R. Cotton, D. A. Wesley, J. S. Snook, and G. S. Poulos

Poster PDF (750.8 kB)

P2.10

Tornadic Supercell Outbreaks in the Southern Great Plains

Stephanie M. Nordin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and H. Brooks

P2.11

The WRF-single-moment-microphysics scheme and its evaluation of the simulation of mesoscale convective systems

Jeong-Ock Jade Lim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong and J. Dudhia

Poster PDF (601.8 kB)

P2.12

Towards evaluating surface heat flux parameterizations from a large-scale perspective: Arctic Ocean example

Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL

P2.13

Winter forecast performance of an operational mesoscale modelling system in the northeast U.S.—winter 2002–2003

Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)

P2.14

Using PV concepts to diagnose a poorly-predicted heavy snow band in New England (6–7 January 2003)

Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. Gyakum and P. Sisson

P2.15

Operational forecasting of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)

Walt McKeown, Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Norfolk, VA

P2.16

Numerically Simulated Interactions Between a Precipitating Synoptic System and Lake-Effect Snowbands over Lake Michigan

Katy L. Fitzpatrick, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich

Poster PDF (512.5 kB)

P2.17

A standard test set for nonhydrostatic dynamical cores of NWP models

William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Doyle, P. Clark, and N. Wood

P2.18

An experiment in probabilistic quantitative snowfall forecasting

Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWSFO, Mount Holly, NJ; and M. P. DeLisi

Poster PDF (125.0 kB)

P2.19

An investigation of IHOP convective system predictability using a matrix of 19 WRF members

Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., B. Shaw, and S. E. Koch

Poster PDF (210.1 kB)

P2.20

Model Applications to the Hawaiian Islands

DaNa L. Carlis, NOAA/Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris

P2.21

Comparison between Regional Spectral Model and high-resolution global circulation model in North American Monsoon simulation

Yucheng Song, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang and K. Mo

P2.22

Development of a New Land-Surface Model for JMA-GSM

Masayuki Hirai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Ohizumi

http://

Poster PDF (634.9 kB)

P2.23

Evaluating surface weather variables predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the western United States

William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

P2.24

Evaluation of the National Marine Verification Program at WFO Key West

Matt C. Parke, NOAA/NWSFO, Key West, FL; and A. Devanas

P2.25

Global variable resolution Euler model development and application

Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. C. Roman and L. A. Byerle

P2.26

Influence of ambient flows and topography on the interannual signal and medium-range predictability over the western U.S. during winter

Lee A. Byerle, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Paegle

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

P2.27

Intercomparison of global research and operational forecasts

Jennifer C. Roman, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle

Poster PDF (2.9 MB)

P2.28

Learning from a null derecho event—the convective forecast for 08 July 2003

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE; and R. Adams

Poster PDF (1.7 MB)

P2.29

The influence of highly resolved sea surface temperatures on Meteorological Simulations off the Southeast US Coast

Peter Childs, State Climate Office of North Carolina and North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and R. Boyles

Poster PDF (160.3 kB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break.

Joint Session 6

Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Organizer: Chris Snyder, NCAR

Chair: Chris Snyder, NCAR

Papers:

11:00 AM

J6.1

Toward an effective short-range ensemble forecast system

F. Anthony Eckel, University of Washington and Air Force Weather Agency, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. P. Grimit

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

J6.2

Multimodel fine-resolution ensembles for short-range forecasts in mountainous terrain

Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and H. Modzelewski, X. Deng, Y. Zhou, L. Huang, T. Cannon, G. Hicks II, D. Storey, M. Holmes, and J. Charbonneau

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (315.7 kB)

11:30 AM

J6.3

Global ensemble forecast at NCEP—configuration, implementation and plan

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and M. Wei

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

J6.4

Ensemble augmentation with a new dressing kernel

Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (556.9 kB)

12:00 PM

J6.5

Impacts of Resolution on Gridded Probability Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance

Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/topics/tsvr

Poster PDF (192.2 kB)

9

Maximizing the Value of Model Output (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: William F. Bunting, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

11:00 AM

9.1

Applications and Implementation of a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction and Visualization System

Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and A. P. Praino

http://www.research.ibm.com/weather/DT.html

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

11:15 AM

9.2

Evaluating Potential Impact of Significant East Coast Winter Storms by Analysis of Upper and Low-level Wind Anomalies

Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA; and R. Grumm

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

11:30 AM

9.3

Subjective verification of deterministic models during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program

John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA//OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, M. Dahmer, and J. Levit

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (66.0 kB)

11:45 AM

9.4

Using 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model output in redeveloping the Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP)

Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack and J. M. Flatley

Poster PDF (222.2 kB)

12:00 PM

9.5

Using mesoscale model simulations to better understand the role of surface mixed-layer dynamics in fire-weather interactions

Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and D. Keyser

http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/eamc/

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (204.6 kB)

Exhibits Open

10

Public Forecast and Warning Issues (ROOM 607)

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel

Papers:

1:30 PM

10.1

The Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops

Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. Mahoney, A. C. Wood, J. G. LaDue, and X. Yu

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (996.7 kB)

1:45 PM

10.2

High Impact Sub-Advisory Snow Events: The Need to Effectively Communicate the Threat of Short Duration High Intensity Snowfall

Gregory A. DeVoir, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (184.6 kB)

1:59 PM

10.3

Paper 10.3 has been moved to Session 5, New Paper Number 5.3A

2:00 PM

10.4

Initial Evaluation Results of the Eta, NMM, GFS, SREF, and RUC Models During the 2003 New England High Resolution Temperature Forecast Program

James M. Wilczak, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. J. Zamora, J. W. Bao, I. V. Djalalova, J. T. McQueen, B. Ferrier, Z. Janjic, H. L. Pan, K. Mitchell, G. DiMego, J. Du, B. Zhou, and S. Benjamin

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (329.6 kB)

2:15 PM

10.5

Highlights from the Joint Polarization Experiment operational demonstration

Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and P. L. Heinselman, D. J. Miller, D. L. Andra Jr., and M. P. Foster

http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schuur/jpole

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

2:30 PM

10.6

Issues in verification of public forecasts

Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and E. Abrams and M. A. Steinberg

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

10.3a

Performance of various operational and experimental numerical forecasts for the March 2003 Colorado snowstorm (Formerly Paper Number 5.3)

Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw, P. Schultz, and D. Barjenbruch

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.4 MB)

11

WRF Model Overview and Agency Programs (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: John E. Gaynor, NOAA/OAR/WA/USWRP

Papers:

1:30 PM

11.1

Overview of the WRF Effort: Partnership, Process and Goals

John L. Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

1:45 PM

11.2

Next-Generation Mesoscale Modeling: A Technical Overview Of WRF

Joseph B. Klemp, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

11.3

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Seaman

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

11.4

ON THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE AIR FORCE WEATHER WEAPON SYSTEM'S NEXT GENERATION MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL: THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST MODEL (WRF)

Mark T. Surmeier, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. W. Wegiel

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (235.9 kB)

2:30 PM

11.5

The Navy role in WRF

Richard M. Hodur, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

11.6

Implementation of a Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)

Robert L. Gall, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

Joint Session 7

Data assimilation and observational network design: Part V (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Organizers: Rolf Langland, NRL; Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL

Papers:

1:30 PM

J7.1

The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC)

David S. Richardson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Truscott

Poster PDF (731.5 kB)

1:45 PM

J7.2

A Review of THORPEX related Research at NCEP

Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

J7.3

AOSN Monterey Bay Experiment: Observing and Predicting the Coastal Ocean

J. G. Bellingham, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA; and P. E. Chandler, Y. Chao, F. Chavez, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, S. Haddock, N. E. Leonard, M. A. McManus, J. D. Paduan, S. R. Ramp, and A. Robinson

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

J7.4

Automated Marine Weather Observations on Research Vessels as part of an Ocean Observing System

Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (524.1 kB)

2:30 PM

J7.5

Application of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system to real-time error forecasting, data assimilation and adaptive sampling off the Central California Coast during AOSN-II

Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and W. G. Leslie, C. Evangelinos, P. J. Haley, O. Logoutov, P. Moreno, A. R. Robinson, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, and S. J. Majumdar

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

J7.6

Demonstration of a methodology for routine observing system design

Shree P. Khare, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ

3:00 PM

J7.7

Rocketsonde buoy system observing system simulation experiments

John Spagnol, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and C. Readyhough, M. Stull, J. Mundy, R. Stull, S. Green, and G. Schajer

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (379.1 kB)

3:15 PM

J7.8

Precision Airdrop System An Emerging Operational Capability

Joseph Dushan, Planning Systems Incorporated, Reston, VA; and R. Wright and D. Velea

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (198.1 kB)

3:30 PM

J7.9

Estimation of Observation Impact using the NAVDAS Adjoint System

Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. L. Baker

3:45 PM

J7.10

Designing Integrated Observing Systems for Weather Prediction: An Integrated Atmospheric Science—Public Policy Approach

Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO

4:00 PM

J7.6a

Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

13

Tropical and Extratropical Transition Studies (ROOM 607)

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

3:30 PM

13.1

Role of the Gulf Stream on extratropical cyclogenesis

Neil A. Jacobs, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, G. M. Lackmann, and P. P. Childs Jr.

Poster PDF (755.1 kB)

3:45 PM

13.2

Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle of north Atlantic tropical cyclones as defined by a cyclone phase space

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

4:00 PM

13.3

Characterization of extratropical transition using cluster analysis

Justin M. Arnott, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (380.9 kB)

4:15 PM

13.4

Method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using TRMM PR/TMI data

Shunsuke Hoshino, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (87.7 kB)

4:30 PM

13.5

The importance of the precipitation mass sink in tropical cyclones

Richard M. Yablonsky, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (351.3 kB)

4:45 PM

13.6

Relationship between climatology and model track, bearing, and speed errors

Bradford S. Barrett, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and C. S. Liou

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (111.3 kB)

5:00 PM

13.7

Impact of the Boundary Layer Processes on Simulated Tropical Rainfall

Young-Hwa Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (988.2 kB)

5:15 PM

13.8

Use of Doppler radar data to improve hurricane intensity forecasts

Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, Y. -. H. Kuo, W. -. C. Lee, and W. Wang

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (189.9 kB)

12

WRF Model Development and Applications (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Robert L. Gall, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

3:30 PM

12.1

Real-time applications of the WRF model at the Forecast Systems Laboratory

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. A. McGinley, J. M. Brown, P. Schultz, E. J. Szoke, T. G. Smirnova, B. L. Shaw, D. Birkenheuer, S. Albers, S. E. Peckham, and G. A. Grell

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (303.1 kB)

3:45 PM

12.2

Results of WRF development activities at NCEP

Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, H. Chuang, J. Derber, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Janjic, D. Keyser, M. Pyle, and W. Wu

4:00 PM

12.3

Implementing the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with local data assimilation in a National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO)

Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and A. Wildman, B. Shaw, J. Smart, P. Ruscher, J. McGinley, B. N. Meisner, and P. Bogenschutz

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

12.4

Real-time explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model during the BAMEX field program

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, J. Done, W. Wang, and J. Bresch

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

12.5

Evaluation of Topographic Flow Simulations from COAMPS and WRF

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

12.6

Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model

Georg A. Grell, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/ Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Peckham, R. Schmitz, and S. A. McKeen

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (446.2 kB)

5:00 PM

12.7

The NCEP WRF core

Zavisa I. Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

5:15 PM

12.8

Evaluating dissipation in NWP models using kinetic energy spectra

William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Baldwin and W. Wang

Recorded presentation

5:30 PM

12.9

The development of the WRF for Hurricanes (HWRF) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Formerly Paper number 14.2)

Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, R. Tuleya, W. Shen, and M. Bender

Sessions end for the day

Panel Discussion 1

The Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process—An Interactive Forum

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Wed 14 Jan

15

Forecasters Forum (ROOM 607)

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

Chair: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

Joint Session 8

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING/ENSEMBLES: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Organizer: Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC

Papers:

8:30 AM

J8.1

On the predictability of flows with many scales

Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

J8.2

Initial Condition Sensitivity Analysis of a Mesoscale Forecast Using Very Large Ensembles

William J. Martin, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and M. Xue

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (276.4 kB)

9:00 AM

J8.3

Singular vectors with an analysis error variance metric

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro and T. Rosmond

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

J8.4

Analysis errors decomposed into singular vectors

C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Hakim

Recorded presentation

14

WRF Model Development and Applications: Part II (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: John E. Gaynor, NOAA/OAR/WA/USWRP

Papers:

8:30 AM

14.1

NCEP's nonhydrostatic mesoscale model: Forecast guidance and transition to WRF

Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Michalakes

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (178.5 kB)

8:44 AM

14.2

Paper Moved to Session 12, New Paper Number 12.9

8:45 AM

14.3

A globally relocatable Numerical Weather Prediction system based on WRF and ADAS

Richard L. Carpenter Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett, K. A. Brewster, D. Weber, Y. Wang, J. A. Brotzge, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and D. Jahn

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (337.4 kB)

9:00 AM

14.4

A Graphical User Interface to Prepare the Standard Initialization for WRF

Paula T. McCaslin, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart, B. Shaw, and B. D. Jamison

http://wrf-model.org/gui

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

9:15 AM

14.2a

Implementation and verification of the unified Noah land surface model in the WRF model (Formerly Paper Number 17.5)

Mukul Tewari, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, W. Wang, J. Dudhia, M. A. LeMone, K. Mitchell, M. Ek, G. Gayno, J. Wegiel, and R. H. Cuenca

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

Coffee Break

Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Events; the The Norm Phillips Symposium; the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; the Symposium on Space Weather; the 18th Conference on Hydrology; the 20th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology; the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; the Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting, and Forecasting in the Urban Zone; and the Interactive Symposium on the Nexus of Coastal Urban Environments )

Lunch Break

Exhibit Hours

Joint Session 9

Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part VI (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Organizer: Timothy Hogan, Naval Research Lab

Papers:

1:30 PM

J9.1

Impact of SeaWinds scatterometer data on numerical weather prediction

Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (176.0 kB)

1:45 PM

J9.2

Improved Super-Ob Radar Radial Wind Precision for the NCEP Data Assimilation and Forecast System

Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. V. Kumar and Y. Song

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (320.3 kB)

2:00 PM

J9.3

Assimilating Radar Data For Real-time Short-term Snowband Forecasting

Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, Y. Liu, and R. Rasmussen

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (392.5 kB)

2:15 PM

J9.4

Errors of the day, bred vectors and singular vectors: implications for ensemble forecasting and data assimilation

Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and E. Kalnay

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (736.0 kB)

16

Climatologies (ROOM 607)

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Suzanne Van Cooten, NDBC

Papers:

1:30 PM

16.1

A climatology of large-scale North Pacific cyclones and their predictability

Linda M. Keller, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (884.3 kB)

1:45 PM

16.2

A climatological study of 100 mm or greater days in northern California

Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (59.5 kB)

2:00 PM

16.3

Global climatology of closed 1000–500 hPa thickness highs and lows

Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, A. R. Aiyyer, and E. H. Atallah

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.5 MB)

2:15 PM

16.4

Cool season tornadoes in the southeast United States: A climatological and case study perspective

Alicia C. Wasula, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, R. Schneider, S. J. Weiss, and R. H. Johns

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (992.2 kB)

Joint Session 10

Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL

Papers:

1:30 PM

J10.1

Model Errors in Ensemble Forecasts: the Structure of Errors from Unrepresented Scales

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (844.5 kB)

1:45 PM

J10.2

Computing the odds on a good probability forecast

Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

J10.3

The Role of Human Forecasters During the 21st Century

Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

2:15 PM

J10.4

Ensemble forecasting and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay during the AOSN-II Experiment

Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop, Y. Chao, Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. F. J. Lermusiaux

2:30 PM

J10.5

Ensemble initial perturbations: Hessian and moist singular vectors

Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

Recorded presentation

Poster Session 3

Wednesday Posters

Location: Room 4AB

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

P3.1

GOES Data Assimilation in MM5: Application for Texas Air Quality Study 2000

Arastoo Pour Biazar, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. McNider, K. Doty, S. L. Haines, W. Lapenta, R. J. Suggs, and G. Jedlovec

Poster PDF (548.0 kB)

P3.2

The effect of differential cloud cover on the propagation of a surface cold front

James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt

Poster PDF (249.1 kB)

P3.3

The experimental seasonal forecast and recent implementation of NCEP RSM

Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Wang and J. Han

Poster PDF (2.2 MB)

P3.4

The distribution of precipitation over the Northeast accompanying landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones

David P. DeLuca, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. R. Vallee

Poster PDF (450.5 kB)

P3.5

Development of capability for regional mesoscale ensemble forecasts

Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Zelazny and D. Lu

P3.6

Atmospheric Prognostic and Dispersion Model Design for Use in the European ENSEMBLE Modeling Exercises

Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. P. Addis

Poster PDF (319.5 kB)

P3.7

Application of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) diabatic initialization of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models for the IHOP-2002 field experiment

Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, D. Birkenheuer, J. Brown, J. McGinley, P. Schultz, J. Smart, and E. Szoke

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/IHOP_Forecasts

Poster PDF (298.6 kB)

P3.8

Application of Scale-Recursive Estimation to Ensemble Forecasts: A Comparison of Coarse and Fine Resolution Simulations of a Deep Convective Storm

Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, V. Venugopal, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P3.9

A successful simulation of a strong kona low: What it tells us about the role latent heat

Steven Businger, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Cherubini

P3.10

A simple model study of regime transition predictability: How do we best make use of a bimodal forecast ensemble?

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen

P3.11

A comparison of an ensemble of positive/negative pairs and a centered spherical simplex ensemble

Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop and S. J. Julier

Poster PDF (880.4 kB)

P3.12

Error Growth and Adaptive Observations

Hyun Mee Kim, MRI, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; and Y. H. Youn and H. S. Chung

Poster PDF (23.1 kB)

P3.13

Identifying state-dependent model error in NWP

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu

P3.14

On-line Probability Forecasts with DIME

Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics & Pembroke College, Oxford, United Kingdom; and M. S. Roulston

P3.15

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM A GLOBAL NWP MODEL

Paul A. Vaillancourt, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Belair, M. Roch, and A. M. Leduc

Poster PDF (380.5 kB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)

Joint Session 11

Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Organizer: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington

Papers:

4:00 PM

J11.1

The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting

Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

J11.2

Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts?

W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen

4:30 PM

J11.3

On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting

David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (370.3 kB)

4:45 PM

J11.4

Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?

Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (998.0 kB)

5:00 PM

J11.5

Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)

Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (338.7 kB)

5:15 PM

J11.6

RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System

Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (839.3 kB)

17

WRF Model Development & Applications: Part III (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Robert L. Gall, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

4:00 PM

17.1

WRF simulations of rainfall coherence over the continental United States

S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, R. E. Carbone, and S. Frederick

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (30.6 kB)

4:15 PM

17.2

The diurnal mode of summer rainfall across the conterminous United States in 10-km simulations by the WRF Model

Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych and K. W. Manning

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.5 MB)

4:30 PM

17.3

Testing of a new nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion scheme in numerical weather prediction applications

Song-You Hong, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and J. Dudhia

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (519.1 kB)

4:45 PM

17.4

Verification Techniques Appropriate for Cloud-Resolving NWP Models

Christopher Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, R. Bullock, M. Chapman, K. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (246.3 kB)

5:00 PM

17.5

Simulation of Landfalling Hurricane Isidore over the Gulf of Mexico Region using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Formerly paper number P2.5)

R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz and M. Vatti

Recorded presentation

5:15 PM

17.6

Consideration of diffuse radiation in the Noah Land Surface Model

Dev Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Alapaty, H. I. Chang, D. Chen, F. Chen, T. Holt, A. Qureshi, and V. K. Saxena

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (19.0 kB)

18

Cyclogenesis and Winter Weather (ROOM 607)

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC

Papers:

4:00 PM

18.1

Revisiting noteworthy U.S. east coast storms and explosive cyclones in the western North Atlantic Ocean from 1979–1993: Simulations using data from the NCEP Regional Reanalysis project

Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and D. Jovic, F. Mesinger, P. Shafran, and G. DiMego

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

4:15 PM

18.2

Extratropical Cyclones with Warm Sector Baroclinic Zones and their Relationship to Severe Weather

Nicholas D. Metz, Oklahoma Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates and Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz and R. Johns

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

18.3

Evaluating the effectiveness of the Warning Decision Training Branch's Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops

Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (409.5 kB)

4:45 PM

18.4

Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases

Daniel P. St. Jean, NOAA/NWSFO, Burlington, VT; and P. A. Sisson, L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and B. Smith

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.2 MB)

5:00 PM

18.5

Utilizing Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulations to Aid the Prediction of Lake-Effect Snowstorms

Neil F. Laird, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich

Poster PDF (396.9 kB)

5:15 PM

18.6

Cold-Air Damming: Physical Mechanisms, Synoptic Settings, and Model Representation

Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and W. M. Stanton

Poster PDF (220.4 kB)

Sessions end for the day

Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

AMS Annual Awards Banquet

THUR 15 JAN

Joint Session 14

Model Parameterization: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )

Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL

Papers:

8:30 AM

J14.1

The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System: Current status and testing of convective momentum transport in the Emanuel cumulus parameterization

Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. F. Peng, J. A. Ridout, Y. J. Kim, J. Teixeira, and R. L. Pauley

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (212.8 kB)

8:45 AM

J14.2

Evaluation of the bulk microphysical pathways and sensitivity studies for 13–14 December 2001 of IMPROVE2

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Garvert, J. B. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass

9:00 AM

J14.3

A statistical approach to linear perturbation convective parameterization schemes

Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

J14.4

Modeling Entrainment and Boundary Layer Growth during a Bore Event using Different Turbulence Parameterizations and LES

Mariusz Pagowski, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and J. W. Bao

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

9:30 AM

J14.5

Mesoscale Modeling Effects on Optical Turbulence Parameterization Performance

Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and D. A. DeBenedictis, R. J. Lefevre, and S. A. Early

Poster PDF (133.3 kB)

19

Transition from Research to Operations (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: John V. Cortinas Jr., NOAA/OAR

Papers:

8:30 AM

19.1

The navy’s on-scene weather prediction system, COAMPS-OS^TM

Daniel A. Geiszler, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. Kent, J. L. S. Strahl, J. Cook, G. Love, L. Phegley, J. Schmidt, Q. Zhao, F. Franco, L. Frost, M. Frost, D. Grant, S. Lowder, D. Martinez, and L. N. McDermid

Poster PDF (308.8 kB)

8:45 AM

19.2

The VISIT program—transferring research to operations

Daniel T. Lindsey, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. Bikos, J. Weaver, and A. Mostek

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/visithome.asp

Poster PDF (339.9 kB)

9:00 AM

19.3

Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

William M. Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Wohlman, J. T. Bradshaw, G. Jedlovec, S. Goodman, C. Darden, J. Burks, and P. Meyer

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (675.0 kB)

9:15 AM

19.4

Use of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) for Space Shuttle weather forecasts at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group

Timothy D. Oram, NOAA/NWSFO, Houston, TX; and T. Garner and B. Hoeth

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1010.9 kB)

9:30 AM

19.5

Collaborative Developments in Severe Weather Prediction in Western Australia

Bruce William Buckley, Insurance Australia Group, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, L. Qi, and J. LeMarshall

Recorded presentation

Poster Session 4

Thursday Posters

Location: Room 4AB

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

P4.1

Wet Microburst—Student Training and Role in On-line Bibliography and Event Selection

Paul J. Croft, University of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and P. Pyle and S. Blair

Poster PDF (126.3 kB)

P4.2

Proximity Sounding Composites of Midwestern Thundersnow Events

Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. M. Oravetz, D. Gaede, E. Bookbinder, B. Pettegrew, and R. Thomas

Poster PDF (936.4 kB)

P4.3

Quality controlled surface visibility observations used to validate predicted surface Aerosol concentration for Southwest Asia

Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal and J. S. Reid

Poster PDF (74.3 kB)

P4.4

The second generation of Eta MOS precipitation guidance—does a finer-resolution predictor dataset have an impact?

Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Poster PDF (180.2 kB)

P4.5

Training for the NWS graphical Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) and National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

Brian C. Motta, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and S. White, S. Beckman, R. Hamilton, P. Manousos, R. Knabb, L. Maximuk, T. Barker, and T. Hansen

P4.6

Upper Air Constant-Pressure Composites of Midwestern Thundersnow Events

Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. M. Oravetz, D. Gaede, E. Bookbinder, R. Ebert, and C. Melick

Poster PDF (223.2 kB)

P4.7

Validation Studies of 4DWX Forecasts and Analyses over Northern Utah

Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT

P4.8

Verification of oceanic weather diagnoses and forecasts for aviation weather elements

Agnes Takacs, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and J. Mahoney

Poster PDF (777.6 kB)

P4.9

Verification of NCEP Workstation Eta model over east and west Africa

Vadlamani B. Kumar, RS Information Systems Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. B. Laws, G. A. V. Duncan, and W. M. Thiaw

Poster PDF (145.4 kB)

P4.10

On The Use of Radar Observations of Reflectivity in Veryfying Model Hydrometeor Fields

Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, J. Schmidt, M. Frost, P. Harasti, and B. Gaudet

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

P4.11

Wet Microburst—Bibliography, Annotation, Data

Paul J. Croft, University of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and A. E. Gerard

Poster PDF (115.0 kB)

P4.12

Opportunities for human forecasters to improve upon model forecasts now and in the future

Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and W. R. Bua

Poster PDF (720.8 kB)

P4.13

2001–2003 Real-time use of cyclone phase diagrams to improve structural forecasting: model-based cyclone phase analysis, forecast, and verification

P4.14

Assessing the Impact of Collaborative Research Projects on NWS Warning Performance

Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY

Poster PDF (402.2 kB)

P4.15

COAMPS Dust Forecasting for Operation Iraqi Freedom

P4.16

Diagnosis of winter time cold bias in the ETA and NMM Models

Hui-Ya Chuang, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, K. Mitchell, V. Wong, and Z. Janjic

Poster PDF (111.9 kB)

P4.17

NOGAPS Tendencies in Forecasting Central Surface Pressure of Mid-Latitude Cyclones

Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA

Poster PDF (199.6 kB)

P4.18

Evaluation of NCEP operational model forecasts of surface wind and pressure fields over the oceans

T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washingon, DC; and V. M. Gerald

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

P4.19

Improving the Great Lakes 30-day ice forecast

Sheldon Drobot, The National Academies, Washington, DC

P4.20

A comparison of FSU2, NCEPR1, and NCEPR2 winds in the Tropical Pacific

Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Romero and M. A. Bourassa

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

P4.21

Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP

Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Jamison, F. Caracena, S. E. Koch, D. L. Bartels, R. M. Hardesty, B. J. McCarty, C. Kiemle, and G. Ehret

Poster PDF (206.3 kB)

P4.22

Precipitation Forecasts Using the BFM and MM5

Jeffrey E. Passner, U. S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM

Poster PDF (167.8 kB)

P4.23

Towards an operational Canadian global coupled assimilation and modelling capacity

C. Harold Ritchie, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and D. Bancroft, A. Cameron, and K. Thompson

Poster PDF (13.7 kB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)

22

Land Surface Processes (ROOM 607)

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL

Papers:

11:00 AM

22.1

4DVAR Assimilation of Ground Temperature for the Estimation of Soil Moisture and Temperature

Diandong Ren, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

11:15 AM

22.2

Improvements to surface flux computations in a non-local-mixing PBL scheme, and refinements to urban processes in the NOAH land-surface model with the NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast system

Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, J. Bowers, and S. Halvorson

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (662.8 kB)

11:30 AM

22.3

development of high resolution land data assimilation system and its application to WRF

Fei Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. W. Manning, D. N. Yates, M. A. LeMone, S. B. Trier, R. Cuenca, and D. Niyogi

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1008.9 kB)

11:45 AM

22.4

Impacts of perturbed soil moisture conditions on short range ensemble variability

Christian J. Sutton, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

20

Forecast Automation (ROOM 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Ronald J. Miller, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:

11:00 AM

20.1

Assessing the utility of an automated 0-1 h thunderstorm product for air traffic managers

Dennis M. Rodgers, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Pratt, L. Sherretz, T. Amis, Y. S. Chun, and J. T. Frimel

Poster PDF (106.3 kB)

11:15 AM

20.2

Navigating Across Lake Paradigm: One Forecast Office's Experiences in Successfully Transforming Operations to Meet the Demands of the NDFD

Joseph DelliCarpini, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and D. R. Vallee

Poster PDF (48.1 kB)

11:30 AM

20.3

Operational issues with a national digital forecast database

Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA; and K. Reeves and M. A. Steinberg

11:45 AM

20.4

Utah's 100 Inch Snowstorm: Structure, orographic precipitation processes, and implications for the NWS IFPS era

W. James Steenburgh, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

12:00 PM

20.5

Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Versus Model Output Statistics

Jeffrey A. Baars, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass and M. Albright

Poster PDF (180.6 kB)

21

Ensemble Forecasting: Part I (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington

Papers:

11:00 AM

21.1

Performance of ensemble forecasts with multiple versions of NCEP's GFS model

Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

21.2

On the need for perturbed LBCs in limited-area ensemble forecasts

Paul Nutter, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and D. Stensrud

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)

11:30 AM

21.3

The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Short Range Eensemble Forecast (SREF) System: Evaluation of an Initial Condition Ensemble vs. Multiple Model Physics Ensemble Approach

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H. Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier, B. Zhou, Z. Toth, and S. Tracton

Poster PDF (426.3 kB)

11:45 AM

21.4

A non-linear fuzzy set technique for combining precipitation forecasts

Brian P. Mackey, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (188.5 kB)

12:00 PM

21.5

Ensemble methods for seasonal limited-area forecasts

Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. al

Poster PDF (474.2 kB)

Lunch Break

Joint Session 12

Forecast Verification (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: William R. Burrows, MSC; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Papers:

1:30 PM

J12.1

Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida

P. Bogenschutz, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Ruscher, P. Welsh, J. Mahoney, J. A. McGinley, M. Kay, B. Shaw, J. Smart, J. Savadel, and J. McQueen

Poster PDF (441.6 kB)

1:45 PM

J12.2

Verification of National Weather Service forecasts of maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation: a 30-year perspective

J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and V. J. Dagostaro

2:00 PM

J12.3

The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) analysis and prediction system

Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli

Poster PDF (315.5 kB)

2:15 PM

J12.4

An Object-Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part I—Methodology

Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, M. Chapman, K. W. Manning, and R. Morss

Poster PDF (232.3 kB)

2:30 PM

J12.5

An Object Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part II—Examples

Michael Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, K. W. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs

Poster PDF (216.2 kB)

2:45 PM

J12.6

Bias normalized precipitation scores

Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill

Poster PDF (2.4 MB)

23

Ensemble Forecasting: Part II (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington

Papers:

1:30 PM

23.1

An Eta model precipitation type mini-ensemble for winter weather forecasting

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. F. Brill and B. Ferrier

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (292.6 kB)

1:45 PM

23.2

An investigation of the mesoscale predictability over the Northeast U.S

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Jones, J. S. Tongue, and J. B. Olson

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (230.9 kB)

2:00 PM

23.3

CONSTRUCTION OF AN ENSEMBLE OF FORECASTS USING ADJOINT-DERIVED SENSITIVITIES

Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. T. Kleist

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (396.9 kB)

2:15 PM

23.4

Evaluation of Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts during the SPC/NSSL 2003 Spring Program

Jason J. Levit, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud, D. R. Bright, and S. J. Weiss

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

2:30 PM

23.5

Flow-Dependent Calibration of Ensemble Spread Using Forecast Spectra

Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Baumhefner

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

2:45 PM

23.6

High-Resolution Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts of the March 28, 2000 Fort Worth Tornadic Storms

Nicki L. Levit, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier and F. Kong

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

Registration Desk Closes

Joint Session 13

Verification of Gridded Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences) (Room 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Chair: Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Papers:

3:30 PM

J13.1

MVT—An Automated Mesoscale Verification Tool

Scott A. Sandgathe, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Heiss

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

3:45 PM

J13.2

A global version of MM5: Method and verification

Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Bresch

Poster PDF (396.7 kB)

4:00 PM

J13.3

Verifying mesoscale model precipitation forecasts using an acuity-fidelity approach

Stephen F. Marshall, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis and T. A. Hutchinson

Poster PDF (555.6 kB)

4:15 PM

J13.4

Use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to verify IHOP QPF as a function of convective system morphology

Jeremy S. Grams, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., L. S. Wharton, S. Koch, E. E. Ebert, and A. Loughe

Poster PDF (269.4 kB)

4:30 PM

J13.5

Composite-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from a Mesoscale Model

Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen and J. Schmidt

Poster PDF (267.9 kB)

4:45 PM

J13.6

Examination of the performance of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP

Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown and B. Shaw

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/szoke/IHOP/ihopmodeleval.html

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)

24

Forecast Uncertainty (ROOM 605/606)

Location: Room 605/606

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Nicholas A. Bond, JISAO/Univ. of Washington and NOAA/PMEL

Papers:

3:30 PM

24.1

Predictive reliability and the scale-bridging capacity of nested models

Ana P. Barros, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and K. -. C. Harm and S. Chiao

3:45 PM

24.2

Numerical forecast accuracy over the Northeast Pacific: Model intercomparison and cases of major failures

Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

24.3

Forecasting Mesoscale Uncertainty: Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Error Predictability

Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (83.2 kB)

4:15 PM

24.4

Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model

Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Schultz and M. Baldwin

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

24.5

The risks and rewards of high resolution and ensemble numerical weather prediction

Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud

4:45 PM

24.6

A comparison of MM5, WRF, RUC, and Eta performance for Great Plains Heavy Precipitation Events during the Spring of 2003

Peter J. Sousounis, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and T. A. Hutchinson and S. F. Marshall

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (450.1 kB)

25

Model Numerics

Location: Room 607

Sponsor: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Edward L. Bensman

Papers:

3:30 PM

25.1

The use of a cartesian terrain-intersecting grid in a Fourier-based solution of the Helmholtz problem of an implicit nonhydrostatic forecast model

R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. J. Thomas

http://sgi62.ncep.noaa.gov:8080/jpurser/NWP.25.1.purser.pdf

Poster PDF (174.1 kB)

3:45 PM

25.2

A fully-implicit semi-Lagrangian nonhydrostatic model employing a pressure-hybrid vertical coordinate

Sajal K. Kar, I.M. Systems Group, Inc., Kensington, MD; and R. J. Purser, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and G. J. Dimego

Poster PDF (112.1 kB)

4:00 PM

25.3

Application of the Rapid Update Cycle at 10-13 km—Initial testing

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, K. Brundage, S. S. Weygandt, G. A. Grell, J. M. Brown, D. Devenyi, B. M. Schwartz, and T. L. Smith

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

4:15 PM

25.4

Dependence of Hurricane Intensity and Structures on Vertical Resolution

Da-lin Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and X. Wang

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

4:30 PM

25.5

Development of Fully Parallelized Regional Spectral Model at NCEP

Jongil Han, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (672.5 kB)

4:45 PM

25.6

Sparse Matrix Techniques for Coupling Independent Hydrological and Meteorological Models

Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and C. Peters-Lidard

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (25.4 kB)

Conference Ends

: 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Saturday, 10 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

Sunday, 11 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

9:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

9:00 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:45 AM-11:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

7:15 PM-7:15 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Tuesday, 13 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

11:00 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

12:30 PM-6:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

1:30 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

3:30 PM-5:45 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

7:00 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Wednesday, 14 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

8:30 AM-8:30 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

12:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Thursday, 15 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

11:00 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Saturday, 10 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

Sunday, 11 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

9:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

9:00 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:45 AM-11:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004