Wednesday, 14 January 2004
On-line Probability Forecasts with DIME
Risk management is significantly simplified when good probability distributions of likely future outcomes are available. And the ideal forecast product for an end-user is not a probabilistic weather forecast, but a probabilistic forecast of the weather dependent economic quantity of interest, such as salad and soft drink sales, electricity demand, or production efficiency. Initial steps in this direction can be found at www.dime.lse.ac.uk, which uses the NCEP ensemble forecast with the aim of translating uncertainty in today's weather variables into future uncertainty in economic variables more relevant to a variety of end-users. This contribution presents information on the aims of the DIME project, as well as instructions on how to use www.dime.lse.ac.uk as an on-line resource.