84th AMS Annual Meeting

Thursday, 15 January 2004
Verification of oceanic weather diagnoses and forecasts for aviation weather elements
Room 4AB
Agnes Takacs, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and J. Mahoney
Poster PDF (777.6 kB)
The Oceanic Weather Product Development Team (OWPDT), sponsored by the FAA's Aviation Weather Research Program at the NCAR Research Application Program (RAP) is addressing oceanic weather needs for aviation. The OWPDT is developing intelligent weather forecasting systems that generate timely information on convective weather, convection-induced or clear air turbulence, high-resolution wind, cloud-top height, volcanic ash, and in-flight icing. Also, it is addressing techniques for quick product generation and methods for their timely dissemination to the end users such as aircraft en-route over the oceans.

The greatest challenge associated with creating accurate and timely oceanic/remote weather hazard information is the lack of data. Therefore, it is very important to use all available data and discover creative diagnostics and algorithms for extracting as much skill as possible from the limited amount of data. The problem is increasing when we attempt to verify the products either during the development process, or prior to transferring the new technology to operations. Clearly, for verification, independent data sets should be used.

This presentation shows our efforts to develop and implement new verification strategies that are appropriate for aviation weather in oceanic regions. At first we focus on CONUS coastal areas and islands where operational data are available. Also, specific oceanic areas will be explored for which experimental data have been collected (THORPEX, SCATCAT, TRMM). Verification results prepared by different techniques and using all available data sources will be compared to obtain the most reliable methods for later use. Plans for employing the latest, advanced aircraft measurements for verification will also be shown. We feel that wind observations, the eddy dissipation rate from ACARS reports and wind gust data from AMDARs may be the key for 3-D wind and turbulence verification.

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