Objective scores show that the ITFA products have skill in forecasting upper-level turbulence. The subjective evaluations show the same trends; that is, for events associated with favorable objective scores, the forecasters were more likely to assess the guidance favorably. The agreement between the objective and subjective numbers improves when the most active days are chosen. However, for days with little or no organized turbulence areas, there was little relationship between the objective and subjective evaluations. This demonstrates that the ongoing objective verification is useful for evaluating ITFA, particularly for the overall performance and for significant events.
The subjective evaluations taken alone indicate that the forecasters were satisfied with ITFA as a useful forecasting tool. Several commented that ITFA is useful as part of a suite of tools. When forecasters were dissatisfied with ITFA guidance, they tended to suggest that the forecast turbulence volumes were too broad and too severe. There was also a tendency for the eastern region, particularly the Northeast, to get relatively high scores, with the Great Basin area receiving some of the lowest.
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