Monday, 12 January 2004: 4:15 PM
Objective evaluation of NCEP/GFS precipitation forecast
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model precipitation forecasts have been of interest to forecasters, as they influence daily life. The rapidly increases in model resolution are proportional to the increases in computer resources. The development of precipitation observation networks and the improvement in measuring techniques have greatly improved the accuracy of observed precipitation. It is possible to build a precipitation forecast verification system based on high quality observed precipitation from the Continental United States (CONUS). By applying traditional and newly developed methods, a 4-year objective evaluation of NCEP/GFS precipitation forecasts will be presented. The model forecast skills affected by different verification techniques, biases, spatial and temporal resolutions will be also discussed.