Tuesday, 13 January 2004: 5:30 PM
The development of the WRF for Hurricanes (HWRF) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Formerly Paper number 14.2)
The HWRF will replace the operational GFDL hurricane prediction system at NWS/NCEP in 2006. Although considerable improvements in hurricane track prediction have occurred at the NWS Tropical Prediction Center over the past three decades primarily due the advancement of NCEP's global modeling system and with the operational implementation at NCEP of the nested air-sea coupled GFDL hurricane model, the same rate of progress has not been forthcoming for improving hurricane intensity and rainfall forecasts. To advance the intensity and rainfall problem and continue further refinements in improving track forecasts at NWS, the HWRF will be a high resolution coupled air-sea-land prediction system with advanced physics. The HWRF will also include a nested wave capability and the land model will include surface hydrology to address the inland flooding problem which now accounts for most of the hurricane related fatalities. Furthermore, the development of a next generation initialization of the hurricane core circulation is fundamental in improving intensity and rainfall forecasts. To this end, NCEP is developing an advanced 3-D var that will make use of operational airborne doppler radar data from NOAA's G-IV aircraft.
In preparation for the 2006 transition, the GFDL model is being benchmarked and work on the developing and testing the prototype HWRF is underway at NCEP. Preliminary results will be shown to include development and testing of candidate physics, preliminary results of land surface coupling and the vortex initialization.