84th AMS Annual Meeting

Joint Session 11: Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)

Wednesday, 14 January 2004: 4:00 PM-5:30 PM
Room 6A
Organizer:  Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington
  4:00 PM
The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting
Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith

  4:15 PM
Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts?
W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen

  4:30 PM
On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting
David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter

  4:45 PM
Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?
Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt

  5:00 PM
  5:15 PM
RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System
Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton