Using this information, it was found that the equitable skill score (ESS) used by the National Verification Program, is overly sensitive to improbable events. In fact, the equitable skill score awards forecasts which differ markedly from climatology. In a tropical marine environment, the ESS lacks the resistance needed to provide a stable, long term measure from which to judge WFO forecast accuracy trends. The ESS, which was designed to prevent forecaster “gaming”, does not adequately address the slight, but operationally relevant, changes in a tropical wind field. This is especially true at WFO Key West, where easterly trade winds dominate the marine environment for a great majority of the year. In addition, it was found that the size of the marine zones when compared to the number of verification sites available was inadequate to provide a meaningful measure of forecast accuracy, and care must be taken to extrapolate general results from the available data. Therefore, the ESS can not be considered a viable method of measuring forecast skill. Since the observation network used for verification is sparse, other verification methods need to be investigated which will emphasize the synoptic flow and should not heavily weight transitory mesoscale events.
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