Tuesday, 13 January 2004: 2:45 PM
Issues in verification of public forecasts
Several methods, such as Threat Scores and Brier Scores, are generally used to verify the accuracy of weather forecasts. While these can be a valuable tool in assessing long-term trends in forecast improvement, they do not address the accuracy of the forecast, as perceived by the end user. As a provider of forecasts in a variety of formats to thousands of paying media and business clients, AccuWeather has developed solutions to measuring forecast accuracy, that may have applications for both government and other private sector weather providers. These methods will be presented and discussed.