Thursday, 15 January 2004: 12:00 PM
Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Versus Model Output Statistics
Room 6A
Model Output Statistics (MOS) have been a useful tool for human
forecasters for years and have shown improving forecast performance over
time. A recent advancement in the use of MOS is the application of
"consensus" MOS (CMOS), which is a combination or average of MOS from two
or more models. CMOS has shown additional skill over individual MOS
forecasts and has performed particularly well in comparison with human
forecasters in forecasting contests. An initial study comparing MOS and
CMOS temperature and precipitation forecasts to those of the NWS
subjective forecasts is described. MOS forecasts from the AVN, Eta, MRF,
NGM models are included, with CMOS being a consensus from these four
models. Data from 30 locations throughout the United States for the July
2003 - December 2003 time period are used. Performance is analyzed at
various forecast periods, by region of the US, and by time/season. The
results show that CMOS is competitive or superior to human forecasts at
nearly all locations.
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