84th AMS Annual Meeting

Session 21: Ensemble Forecasting: Part I (ROOM 605/606)

Thursday, 15 January 2004: 11:00 AM-12:15 PM
Room 605/606
Chair:  Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington
  11:00 AM
Performance of ensemble forecasts with multiple versions of NCEP's GFS model
Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus

  11:15 AM
On the need for perturbed LBCs in limited-area ensemble forecasts
Paul Nutter, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and D. Stensrud

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)
  11:30 AM
The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Short Range Eensemble Forecast (SREF) System: Evaluation of an Initial Condition Ensemble vs. Multiple Model Physics Ensemble Approach
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H. Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier, B. Zhou, Z. Toth, and S. Tracton

Poster PDF (426.3 kB)
  11:45 AM
A non-linear fuzzy set technique for combining precipitation forecasts
Brian P. Mackey, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

  12:00 PM
Ensemble methods for seasonal limited-area forecasts
Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. al

Poster PDF (474.2 kB)