Monday, 12 January 2004: 10:45 AM
Mid-latitude atmospheric influence on tropical Pacific climate variability
Room 608
Recent research has identified mechanisms by which mid-latitude
atmospheric variability can affect Pacific and Atlantic tropical
climate through associated changes in the tropical and subtropical
trade winds. These trade wind fluctuations alter the underlying sea
surface temperature, exciting coupled feedbacks in the tropics and
subtropics that persist through the following spring and summer. Of
paticular note is the finding that in the Pacific, these tropical
coupled feedbacks appear to be an especially efficient means of
exciting El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in models
and in observations. We present research that illustrates this
mechanism in observations and in models, and show evidence for
positive coupled feedbacks in the tropics that appear to enhance the
seasonal persistence of off-equatorial tropical variability. These
results may indicate enhanced seasonal predictability of tropical
variability, and of ENSO.
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