Program: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations (84th AMS Annual Meeting)

SAT 10 JAN

Short Course/Student Conference Registration

SUN 11 JAN

Short Course Registration

Conference Registration

Mon 12 Jan

Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January

1

Seasonal Prediction (Room 6C)

Location: Room 6C

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: John E. Janowiak, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

Papers:

1.1

A comparison of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and COADS El Nino and La Nina composite anomaly lifecycles.

9:15 AM

1.2

Multiscale evolution and predictability of a warm season climate anomaly in the U.S. southern Great Plains

Paul Nutter, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie and P. Lamb

http://cimms.ou.edu/~pnutter/15thGlbChng.pdf

Poster PDF (2.4 MB)

9:30 AM

1.3

Warm Season Precipitation Prediction over North America with Eta Regional Climate Model

Rongqian Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Mitchell

Recorded presentation

9:45 AM

1.4

Usefulness of recent NOAA/CPC seasonal temperature forecasts

Jeanne M. Schneider, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and J. D. Garbrecht

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (580.5 kB)

10:00 AM

1.5

Seasonal prediction of Pacific island rainfall using artificial intelligence

Mark L. Morrissey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

2

Climate Observations (Room 608)

Location: Room 608

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:

9:00 AM

2.1

NWS Plans for Upper Air System Data Continuity

Joseph Facundo, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and C. Bower

Poster PDF (268.1 kB)

9:15 AM

2.2

A new Radiosonde dataset for climate studies

Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

2.3

Global large-scale precipitation: Seasonal and interannual variations in the merged analyses, reanalysis and NCEP/GFS model outputs

Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. J. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and M. Chen

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (469.9 kB)

9:45 AM

2.4

The next-generation PACRAIN database

Michael D. Klatt, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey, J. S. Greene, and S. Postawko

http://pacrain.evac.ou.edu

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (10.7 kB)

10:00 AM

2.5

Stratocumulus and climate: observations from EPIC 2001

Kimberly Comstock, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Bretherton, S. Yuter, and R. Wood

http://ftp://eos.atmos.washington.edu/pub/breth/papers/MBL_clouds/EPIC2001-Sc.pdf

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room

Joint Session 1

Climate Trends (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Room 6C)

Location: Room 6C

Sponsors: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Papers:

10:45 AM

J1.1

Economic signals in global temperature histories

Patrick J. Michaels, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA and the Cato Institute, Washington, DC; and R. McKitrick and P. C. Knappenberger

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (331.5 kB)

11:00 AM

J1.2

Irrigation-induced warming in Central California?

John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and W. B. Norris

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (266.0 kB)

11:15 AM

J1.3

Trends in time-varying percentiles of daily minimum and maximum temperature over North America

Scott M. Robeson, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

11:30 AM

J1.4

Is the 50-year trend in tropical Indo-Pacific SSTs significant?

C�cile Penland, NOAA-CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

11:45 AM

J1.5

AO, COWL and observed climate trends

Qigang Wu, COLA, Calverton, MD; and D. M. Straus

http://

3

Atmospheric Oscillations (Room 608)

Location: Room 608

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland

Papers:

10:45 AM

3.1

Mid-latitude atmospheric influence on tropical Pacific climate variability

Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Recorded presentation

11:00 AM

3.2

The Impact of ENSO on the NAO variability

Zhaohua Wu, COLA, Calverton, MD; and E. Schneider and B. Kirtman

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

3.3

Diagnosing the Effect of ENSO and PDO associated Summer Teleconnections in North America with a regional climate model

Christopher L. Castro, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, Sr.

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

3.4

Aspects of the Heat Balance of the Indian Ocean on Interseasonal and Interannual Timscales

Kamran Sahami, Univerity of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

3.5

Dynamic Origin of Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the Stormy Atmospheric Circulation

Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and L. L. Pan and M. Watanabe

Recorded presentation

Lunch Break

Joint Session 2

Drought: Variability Monitoring, Impacts, and Prediction (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Room 6C)

Location: Room 6C

Sponsors: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Cochairs: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC; Greg Johnson, USDA/NRCS, National Water and Climate Center

Papers:

1:30 PM

J2.1

Paleodrought reconstructions to planning

Connie A. Woodhouse, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Webb

1:45 PM

J2.2

Ensemble Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Streamflow in the South Platte

Robert S. Webb, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Woodhouse

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

J2.3

ENSO and the changing landscape of drought

Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

J2.4

Recent Advances in Drought Monitoring

Mark D. Svoboda, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. J. Hayes, D. A. Wilhite, and T. Tadesse

http://drought.unl.edu

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (42.1 kB)

2:30 PM

J2.5

Putting recent U.S. and Southwest drought impacts in perspective

Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

J2.6

Estimating the Economic Impacts of Drought

Michael J. Hayes, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Svoboda, C. L. Knutson, and D. A. Wilhite

http://drought.unl.edu

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (64.9 kB)

J2.7

Predicting drought vulnerability in the Mediterranean

3:15 PM

J2.8

The recent 4-year drought: Global Warming or La Nina?

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo

Recorded presentation

3:30 PM

J2.9

Regional Drought Driven by Tropical Ocean Warming

Martin Hoerling, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. Hurrell

3:45 PM

J2.10

CMORPH: An 8KM, Half-Hourly Global Precipitation Monitoring Tool

John Janowiak, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Joyce, P. Arkin, and P. Xie

Recorded presentation

5:30 PM

J2.7A

The Drought of 2002 in Colorado (Formerly Poster JP3.6)

Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, Sr.

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

4:00 PM

J2.4a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Joint Poster Session 1

Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Hall 4AB)

Location: Hall 4AB

Sponsors: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Papers:

JP1.1

Value of climate forecasts with marginal to modest skill to real users

Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. E. Mayes

JP1.2

Sources of skill and error in long range Columbia River streamflow forecasts: a comparison of the role of hydrologic state variables and winter climate forecasts

Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. Wood, S. Babu, and D. P. Lettenmaier

JP1.3

�Climate Sensitive� Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Research: Origins, Development and Future

Harvey Hilll, UCAR, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Pulwarty and C. Nierenberg

Poster PDF (102.7 kB)

JP1.4

Verification of specific station forecasts based on ENSO composites and CPC Nino 3.4 forecasts

Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Staudenmaier Jr., D. Unger, E. Petrescu, A. Bair, W. Higgins, and H. K. Kim

JP1.5

Application of CPC Method to Downscale Seasonal Outlooks from Forecast Divisions to Station Locations

Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Bair and D. Unger

JP1.6

Weather derivatives as a vehicle to realise the skill of seasonal forecasts

Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorlogy, Melbourne, Australia; and S. S. Dawkins

Poster PDF (252.2 kB)

JP1.7

Moving water from theory and farms�the Colorado water bank experiment

John D. Wiener, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

JP1.8

Wavelet Analysis on Variability, Teleconnectivity and Predictability of East Africa Rainfall

Davison Mwale, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and T. Y. Gan and S. Shen

Poster PDF (375.0 kB)

JP1.9

Forecasting drought in the Murray-Darling Basin at seasonal to interannual time scales

Gavin J. Bowden, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and A. P. Barros

JP1.10

ENSO events, rainfall variability and the potential of SOI for the seasonal precipitation predictions in the south of C�rdoba-Argentina

Roberto A. Seiler, Univ. of R�o Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; and M. G. Vinocur

Poster PDF (218.0 kB)

JP1.11

Analysis of sub-seasonal rainfall characteristics from a nested modeling system for South America

Anji Seth, International Research Insititute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and M. Rojas

Joint Poster Session 2

Climate Trends (Joint with the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Hall 4AB)

Location: Hall 4AB

Sponsors: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology )

Chair: David Changnon, Northern Illinois University

Papers:

JP2.1

Temporal changes in dew point temperatures associated with short-duration heat waves in Chicago

David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and M. Sandstrom and C. Schaffer

JP2.2

Visibility trends for coastal regions

Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. L. Buckley

Poster PDF (728.1 kB)

JP2.3

Trends in Relative Humidity in Canada from 1953�2003

William A. Van Wijngaarden, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and L. A. Vincent

Poster PDF (117.5 kB)

JP2.4

Variations and trends in climate indices for Canada

Lucie A. Vincent, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and �. Mekis

Poster PDF (179.4 kB)

JP2.5

Changes of seasonality and phenological cycles in South Korea

Gwangyong Choi, Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ; and W. T. Kwon and D. A. Robinson

Poster PDF (56.1 kB)

JP2.6

Climate analysis and prediction over the Arno river basin, Italy

Francesco Meneguzzo, Institute of Biometeorology /National Research Council, Firenze, Italy; and G. Menduni, G. Maracchi, M. Baldi, G. Brandani, A. Crisci, F. Marrese, M. Pasqui, and F. Piani

http://www.ibimet.cnr.it/clima

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

Joint Poster Session 3

DROUGHT: VARIABILITY MONITORING, IMPACTS, AND PREDICTION (JOINT withTHE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY; Hall 4AB)

Location: Hall 4AB

Sponsors: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Chair: Phillip A. Pasteris, Global Water Resources

Papers:

JP3.1

Paleoclimatology: A New Tool in Drought Monitoring

C. Mark Eakin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Woodhouse, E. R. Cook, and R. Heim

JP3.2

Real-time Soil Moisture Information for Drought Monitoring and Assessment

Bradley G. Illston, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK OK; and J. B. Basara, C. Fiebrich, M. Wolfibarger, G. McManus, and D. Arndt

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

JP3.3

Linking Drought Vulnerable Soil Landscapes with Placement of Climate Stations for Monitoring Drought

Phillip Pasteris, USDA, Portland, OR; and S. Waltman, G. Schaefer, and R. Sinclair

JP3.4

Drought and the modernized cooperative observer network

Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and M. A. Shafer and K. C. Crawford

Poster PDF (479.2 kB)

JP3.5

Comparison of different evaporation/transpiration schemes using field observations

JP3.6

Poster JP3.6 moved, now Paper J2.7A

JP3.7

A Climatology of drought for Arizona

Jenna C. McPhee, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and A. C. Comrie and G. G. Garfin

Poster PDF (112.2 kB)

Sessions end for the Day

Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

TUE 13 JAN

Joint Session 3

Land-Atmosphere Interactions (Joint with the 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and 18th Conf on Hydrology; Room 609/610)

Location: Room 609/610

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Hydrology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Organizers: Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC; Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California

Papers:

8:30 AM

J3.1

The contribution of land-atmosphere interaction to boreal summer season predictability

Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD; and M. Zhao and J. Shukla

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

J3.2

Alternative approaches to land initialization for seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts

Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez, P. Liu, and U. Jambor

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

J3.3

Impact of land-surface initial conditions spin-up on warm season predictability by the NCEP GFS coupled with the Noah LSM

Cheng-Hsuan Lu, RSIS Inc. McLean, VA and EMC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Mitchell

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

9:15 AM

J3.4

Role of land surface processes in monsoon development�EAST ASIA AND WEST AFRICA

Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. -. M. Juang, W. -. P. Li, S. Prince, R. DeFries, and Y. Jiao

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

J3.5

A stratified diagnosis of the Indian monsoon�Eurasian snow cover relationship

J. Fasullo, PAOS, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (759.3 kB)

9:45 AM

J3.6

A soil moisture initialization method, based on antecedent precipitation approach, for Regional Atmospheric Modeling System: a sensitivity study on precipitation and temperature

Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council (IBIMET-CNR), Florence, Italy; and C. J. Tremback, F. Meneguzzo, G. Giuliani, and B. Gozzini

http://www.lamma.rete.toscana.it

Poster PDF (809.9 kB)

10:00 AM

J3.7

The Mesoscale Impact of Oklahoma's Winter Wheat Belt

Renee A. McPherson, OCS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and K. C. Crawford

Poster PDF (2.0 MB)

10:15 AM

J3.8

Contrasting land surface processes over basins of the Americas using Eta model forecasts

Ernesto Hugo Berbery, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Luo, K. Mitchell, and A. K. Betts

10:30 AM

J3.9

Why are the lower level cumulus clouds often better organized on the east bank of the Tapajos River? -- a mechanistic study

Lixin Lu, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Denning, M. Silva Dias, and P. Silva Dias

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

J3.10

GLACE: An intercomparison of land-atmosphere coupling strength across a range of atmospheric general circulation models

Zhichang Guo, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. Dirmeyer and R. D. Koster

Recorded presentation

11:00 AM

J3.5a

Coffee Break with Formal Poster Viewing

4

Climate Models: Evaluation and Projections, Part I (Room 608)

Location: Room 608

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL

Papers:

8:30 AM

4.1

An appraisal of the state of the art of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs

Curt Covey, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and K. M. AchuaRao, M. Fiorino, P. J. Gleckler, T. J. Phillips, K. R. Sperber, and K. E. Taylor

8:45 AM

4.2

Climate feedbacks in the GFDL AM2 model

Anthony J. Broccoli, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

4.3

Changes of Precipitation Characteristics by Global Warming Simulated by the MRI CGCM

Akio Kitoh, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Hosaka, Y. Adachi, and Y. Murata

Recorded presentation

4.4

The contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings to recent trends in the Southern Hemisphere

9:30 AM

4.5

Climate change predicted by the CNRM Climate Model: comparison between coupled and forced experiments

Herve Douville, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France

Recorded presentation

9:45 AM

4.6

Assessment of changes in winter extratropical cyclones with increasing CO2

Eun-Pa Lim, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and I. Simmonds

http://

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (348.2 kB)

4.7

SST perturbation experiments in the CSU general circulation model: Impact on simulated cloud types

10:15 AM

4.8

An evaluation of two GCMs: North American teleconnections and synoptic phenomena

J. T. Schoof, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and S. C. Pryor

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (356.0 kB)

10:30 AM

4.9

Comparison of regional climate scenarios for the Carpathian Basin generated by statistical and dynamical methods

Judit Bartholy, E�tv�s Lor�nd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, I. Matyasovszky, and V. Schlanger

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

4.10

The Madden-Julian Oscillation in GCMs

Kenneth R. Sperber, LLNL/PCMDI, Livermore, CA; and J. M. Slingo, P. M. Inness, S. Gualdi, W. Li, P. J. Gleckler, and C. Doutriaux

4.11

The Varying Importance of Air-Sea Interactions to MJO in the Indo-Pacific Ocean

11:15 AM

4.12

A mechanism of the MJO based on interactions in the frequency domain

T.N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. R. Chakraborty, N. Cubukcu, L. Stefanova, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar

11:30 AM

4.13

Feedbacks affecting the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO₂: A study with a model of intermediate complexity

Igor V. Kamenkovich, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. P. Sokolov and P. H. Stone

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (548.2 kB)

11:45 AM

4.14

Precipitation and surface air temperature in the central United States and related physical processes in CMIP2+ simulations

Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and X. Z. Liang

Recorded presentation

4.15

Identifying significant changes in European temperature extremes using Regional Climate Models

12:15 PM

4.6a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

1:30 PM

4.7a

INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS IN AGCM SIMULATION SKILLS (Formerly paper P1.30)

Alice M. Grimm, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil; and A. Sahai

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (99.5 kB)

1:45 PM

4.10a

Lunch Break

Joint Session 12

Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)

Location: Room 6C

Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Organizer: Siegfried Schubert, NASA Data Assimilation Office

Papers:

8:30 AM

J12.1

Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction

Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

J12.2

The Missing Forecasts: A discussion of the Gap between extended numerical weather prediction and seasonal climate forecasts

Chester F. Ropelewski, IRI, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

J12.3

Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability

Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

J12.4

The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Wintertime Surface Air Temperatures

Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and N. Bond

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

J12.5

Analytic Approximation of MJO-like Systems in Super-parameterization

Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

9:45 AM

J12.6

Intraseasonal prediction experiments using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model

Suranjana Saha, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and H. L. Pan

Recorded presentation

10:00 AM

J12.7

Analysis of recent atmospheric climate anomalies using the NSIPP-1 AGCM

Philip J Pegion, NASA-GSFC SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, M. Suarez, and Y. Chang

Recorded presentation

J12.8

Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting

10:30 AM

J12.9

Subseasonal to interannual prediction sensitivities in the GFDL/FMS GCM

W. Stern, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, R. Gudgel, M. Harrison, and A. Wittenberg

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

J12.10

The physical perturbation implementation of NCEP RSM for regional climate downscaling

Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and Y. Song and K. Mo

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (707.4 kB)

11:00 AM

J12.11

A study of subseasonal predictability

Matthew Newman, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh

11:15 AM

J12.12

The lifespan of subseasonal locally coupled anomalies

Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai and E. Kalnay

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (168.0 kB)

11:30 AM

J12.13

A Synoptic Model of Low Frequency Variability with Application to Subseasonal Prediction

Klaus M. Weickmann, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and E. Berry

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

J12.14

Lingering Memory and Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction

Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Van den Dool and S. Saha

Recorded presentation

12:00 PM

J12.15

Long-range forecasting by EEOF extrapolation by linear and non-linear methods

Constantin Mares, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; and I. Mares

Poster PDF (289.5 kB)

12:15 PM

J12.16

Probabilistic Forecasting of South-East Asian Intraseasonal Variability using a Wavelet Banding Technique

Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

Recorded presentation

12:30 PM

J12.17

Improved intraseasonal South Asian monsoon forecasts using a GCM by comparison to wavelet analysis of empirical precipitation data

Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. Hoyos and P. J. Webster

Recorded presentation

12:45 PM

J12.18

Impacts of Rainfall Assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Scale Dynamics

Song Yang, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and L. Tao, A. Hou, and W. Olson

Recorded presentation

1:00 PM

J12.19

Forecasts of tropical rainfall with the Constracted Analog method

Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Van den Dool

1:15 PM

J12.20

Combined dynamical and statistical forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation

Warwick Norton, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Baldwin and J. Whitaker

Recorded presentation

1:30 PM

J12.21

Stratospheric memory and skill of subseasonal forecasts

Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, WA; and D. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill

Recorded presentation

1:45 PM

J12.22

A Diagnostic study of the changes in Atmospheric Moisture over the Indian Ocean prior to Monsoon Onset over Kerala

K.P. Sooraj, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, IA, India; and C. K. Rajan, B. Simon, and P. C. Joshi

2:00 PM

J12.23

International stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP): Initial results on exploring the new approach to regional climate modeling and prediction ( Formerly paper j13.20)

Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Cote, M. Deque, B. Dugas, and J. McGregor

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

J12.5a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

3:30 PM

J12.10a

Lunch Break

5:00 PM

J12.16a

Coffee Break In Exhibit Hall

Joint Poster Session 4

Land-Atmosphere Interactions Posters (Joint with the 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and 18th Conf. on Hydrology; Hall 4AB)

Location: Hall 4AB

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Hydrology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Chairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC

Papers:

JP4.1

The Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts in the West African Sahel: Preliminary testing of the HU-RSMCVS model

Andrea M. Sealy, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, C. H. Lu, and H. M. H. Juang

Poster PDF (253.6 kB)

JP4.2

The relationship between soil moisture and climate at seasonal to interannual scales

Jiarui Dong, GEST/University of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and W. Ni, P. Houser, and R. Koster

JP4.3

Regional scale energy and water flux climatologies as derived from remote sensing inputs and a land-exchange model

John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and M. C. Anderson, J. A. Otkin, and J. M. Norman

Poster PDF (360.0 kB)

JP4.4

Roles of land use and orography on the simulated summer monsoon over South Asia using a regional climate model

Suhee Park, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong

Poster PDF (640.7 kB)

JP4.5

Local moisture cycling in the Nebraska Sand Hills -- the key to dune stabilization?

Clinton M. Rowe, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. R. Anderson, D. B. Radell, and D. B. Loope

JP4.6

THE IMPACT OF LOCALLY FORCED DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS ON PREDICTABILITY OVER COMPLEX LANDSCAPES

Daran L. Rife, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner

JP4.7

Investigation of South American land/atmopshere interactions using the regional Eta/SSiB model

Fernando H. De Sales, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Xue

Poster PDF (546.0 kB)

JP4.8

Investigating the Role of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Desert Feedback Mechanism During the Active and Break Phases of the Monsoon Using MM5 and ARPS

Sam Chiao, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and A. P. Barros

JP4.9

Isolating microscale phenomena from mesoscale observations

Matthew J. Haugland, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (159.8 kB)

JP4.10

A study of the physical influences on the location and strength of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land.

Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma and P. J. Webster

JP4.11

Relationship between antecedent land surface conditions and precipitation in the North American Monsoon region

Chunmei Zhu, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier and T. Cavazos

JP4.12

The Role of Prairie Wetland Extent on the Pre-storm Environment of the Northern Great Plains

W. J. Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, R. D. Farley, K. W. Harding, D. P. Todey, and J. L. Elsen

Poster PDF (770.5 kB)

JP4.13

ENSO effects on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) at the Maipo river basin, Chile

Francisco J. Meza, Facultad de Agronom�a e Ingenier�a Forestal. Pontificia Universidad Cat�lica de Chile., Santiago, RM, Chile

Poster PDF (163.4 kB)

JP4.14

Representativeness of Soil Moisture Conditions in Central Oklahoma During the Enhanced Drying Phase

Bradley G. Illston, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK OK; and J. C. Caldwell and S. G. Bodnar

Poster PDF (103.7 kB)

JP4.15

Evaluation of Sahel ground climatology from 1982 to 1990 based on satellite derived LAI, 200 raingauge stations, and a vegetation model (SSiB)

Isabelle Poccard, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Xue

Poster PDF (400.5 kB)

JP4.16

Testing of several recent modifications to ARPS land surface model

Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Ren

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

JP4.17

On the soil thermal diffusivity and liquid water flux density in a Tibetan short-grass prairie

Zhiqiu Gao Sr., NPS, MOnterey, CA

JP4.18

The Regional Evapotranspiration of the Amazon

David Werth, Duke University, Durham, NC; and R. Avissar

Poster PDF (129.0 kB)

JP4.19

COMPASS: Coupled models package of surface schemes

Mariza Costa-Cabral, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Richey, D. P. Lettenmaier, M. Logsdon, S. S. Rodda, E. Mayorga, and A. K. Aufdenkampe

JP4.20

Direct and indirect feedbacks of simultaneous soil moisture and atmospheric CO2 changes on simulated terrestrial ecosystem response

Dev Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Xue

Poster PDF (23.9 kB)

JP4.21

Global warming effects on Great Lakes water: More precipitation but less water?

Brent M. Lofgren, Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, Ann Arbor, MI

Poster PDF (116.5 kB)

JP4.22

Convective Planetary Boundary Layer Evolution And Land Surface Energy Balance

Joseph A. Santanello Jr., Boston University, Boston, MA; and M. A. Friedl

Poster PDF (336.6 kB)

JP4.23

Impact of GCM climate biases on the simulation of soil moisture memory

Sarith Mahanama, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster

JP4.24

Paper JP4.24 moved, new paper number 2.7a

JP4.24a

Snowpack advances in the Noah land-surface model

Michael Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Suitland, MD; and K. Mitchell, D. Lohmann, and H. Wei

JP4.25

A west-wide seasonal to interannual hydrologic forecast system

Andrew W. Wood, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet, S. Babu, and D. P. Lettenmaier

JP4.26

Global energy and water balance simulation with bucket model for GSWP2

Naota Hanasaki, The university of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Kanae and T. Oki

Poster PDF (139.1 kB)

JP4.27

Impact of GCM climate biases on the simulation of soil moisture

Sarith Mahanama, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster

JP4.28

A tendency towards lower frequency climatic variations in the southwestern U.S. during the past 100 years

John A. Dracup, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and H. G. Hidalgo

JP4.29

Land surface temperature estimation for hydrological assimilation

Andrew N French, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and P. Houser, A. Pinheiro, and J. Meng

JP4.30

Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation and Snowpack in the western United States

Jiming Jin, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and N. L. Miller, S. Sorooshian, and X. Gao

JP4.31

Roughness lengths over snow

Edgar L. Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and R. E. Jordan, P. S. Guest, P. O. G. Persson, A. A. Grachev, and C. W. Fairall

Poster PDF (291.1 kB)

JP4.32

Land-surface issues in the NCEP Regional Reanalysis

Michael Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Suitland, MD; and K. Mitchell, P. Shafran, and D. Jovic

JP4.33

Using GSWP 2 in a Global Water Cycle Synthesis and Analysis (Formerly paper 1.8)

C. Adam Schlosser, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser, J. K. Entin, and D. R. Belvedere

JP4.34

Land Memory in GSWP 2 and AMIP 2 Simulations (Formerly paper 1.9)

Adam Schlosser, UMBC/GEST, Baltimore, MD; and R. Koster and P. A. Dirmeyer

Poster Session 1

Climate Modeling and Observed Climate Change (Hall 4AB)

Location: Hall 4AB

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Papers:

P1.1

NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis

Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego, E. Kalnay, P. Shafran, W. Ebisuzaki, D. Jovic, J. Woolen, K. Mitchell, E. Rogers, M. Ek, Y. Fan, R. Grumbine, W. Higgins, H. Li, Y. Lin, G. Mankin, D. Parish, and W. Shi

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

P1.2

Diagnosis of Climate Model Physical Parameterizations using NWP protocols � Dependence on Initial Analyses

P1.3

Comparison of Global Temperature Trend Between CARDS, NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF Reanalyses Data

Paula A. Agudelo, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry

P1.4

Hindcasting of the climate changes over North Pacific and North America from hindcast of the ocean mixed layer anomalies in the tropical and mid-latitude Pacific

Elena Yulaeva, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and N. Schneider

Poster PDF (408.5 kB)

P1.5

The diurnal cycle of temperature in the free atmosphere estimated from radiosondes

Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Free

P1.6

The variability of surface cloud radiative forcing over the US

Haig Iskenderian, Northrop Grumman Information Technology, Reading, MA

P1.7

Three distinct goals for research with climate models

S. Fred Singer, Science & Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, VA

P1.8

Seasonal prediction of the regional Eta model in North American climate study

Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Vasic and Z. Janjic

P1.9

Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM

Renguang Wu, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman

P1.10

Tropical diabatic heating and the role of convective processes as represented in several contemporary climate models

Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. O. Roads, R. Oglesby, and S. Marshall

P1.11

Seasonal Climate Signatures in the FSU Climate Model Coupled to the CLM2

Dong-Wook Shin, COAPS, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Cocke, T. E. LaRow, and J. J. O'Brien

P1.12

Pattern and trend analysis of temperature in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations

Mei Zhao, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. Dirmeyer

P1.13

Successful Simulation of the Tropical Western Pacific Precipitation for JJA closely correlated with the Tropical SST for the previous DJF

Tomoaki Ose, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Kitoh

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P1.14

The dependence of intrseasonal variability on mixed layer depth in an AGCM coupled to a slab ocean

Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and A. H. Sobel

Poster PDF (363.4 kB)

P1.15

Enhancing signal-to-noise in regional attribution of anthropogenic climate change

David J. Karoly, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

P1.16

A nodal line in the sensitivity of climate change to Tropical SSTs

Joseph J. Barsugli, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and S. I. Shin

P1.17

Use of in-situ observations of Arctic clouds to understand impacts of mixed-phase clouds on single-scattering: properties: applications to climate studies

Greg McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. Zhang

Poster PDF (331.2 kB)

P1.18

Observations and stochastic modeling of shortwave radiative transfer at the ARM CART sites

Dana E. Lane-Veron, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and J. M. Secora

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (200.9 kB)

P1.19

Tropical-extratropical and inter-hemispheric climate interaction: atmospheric bridge and oceanic tunnel

Haijun Yang, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Z. Liu

P1.20

Using Neural Networks for Fast and Accurate Approximation of Long Wave Radiation Parameterization in the NCAR Community Model: Evaluation of Computational Performance and Accuracy of Approximation

Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, Univ. of Maryland and SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Fox-Rabinovitz and D. Chalikov

http://

Poster PDF (69.1 kB)

P1.21

Use of GOES solar radiation data to improve long-term retrospective land surface simulations

Nathalie Voisin, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier and R. Pinker

P1.22

Efficient methods for producing temporally and topographically corrected daily climatological data sets for the continental US

Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. S. Park and D. P. Lettenmaier

P1.23

Downscaling and projection of the wintertime extreme daily precipitation over North America by large-scale atmospheric circulation

Jiafeng Wang, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China and MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and E. Barrow

Poster PDF (137.9 kB)

P1.24

Equatorial superrotation and the factors controlling the zonal-mean zonal winds in the tropics

Ian P. Kraucunas, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

P1.25

Extreme value characteristics of daily climate scenarios produced with a stochastic weather generator

Henry N. Hayhoe, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and B. Qian

P1.26

Long-term atmospheric water budget over NAME domain from radiosonde observations

Evgeney Yarosh, RSIS, Inc., Camp Springs, MD; and W. Higgins and W. Shi

P1.27

Physical Linkages between ENSO and Tornado Frequency in the United States

Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. K. Wikle and R. W. Arritt

P1.28

Predicting the Onset of the North American Monsoon and Progress Toward a Mechanistic Understanding

David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. C. Ivanova, B. L. Hall, M. F. Lavin, D. J. Gochis, and K. T. Redmond

P1.29

Regional characteristics of the decadal and interdecadal variations for global temperature field during the last century

Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

P1.29A

Paper P1.30 moved to Session 4, new paper number 4.7A

5

Observed Climate Change: Part I (Room 608)

Location: Room 608

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: Dale Kaiser, ORNL

Papers:

3:30 PM

5.1

Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western north America

Philip W. Mote, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Clark and A. F. Hamlet

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (966.4 kB)

3:45 PM

5.2

Variability and trends in United States snowfall over the last half century

Daria Scott, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. Kaiser

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (102.2 kB)

4:00 PM

5.3

Trends in 30-year satellite record of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent

Donald J. Cavalieri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. L. Parkinson and K. Y. Vinnikov

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

5.4

Historical variability in Arctic surface air temperature records

James E. Overland, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and M. Spillane and K. Wood

4:30 PM

5.5

Trends in high clouds over the past 22 years

Donald Wylie, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. L. Jackson, P. Menzel, and J. J. Bates

Poster PDF (232.7 kB)

4:45 PM

5.6

Assessment of observational biases and changes in Canadian cloudiness

Xiaolan L. Wang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and F. W. Zwiers, V. R. Swail, and T. Yuzyk

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

5.7

Evaluation of cloud amount trends and connections to large scale dynamics

Todd D. Ellis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and G. L. Stephens and D. W. J. Thompson

http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/ellis/AMStalk.html

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (994.8 kB)

6

Radiative Forcing of the Climate: Modeling (Room 609/610)

Location: Room 609/610

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL

Papers:

3:30 PM

6.1

Changes in global ocean cloud cover and related radiation flux since 1952

Joel R. Norris, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA

3:45 PM

6.2

Testing the impact of clouds on the radiation budgets of 19 AMIP models

Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and R. D. Cess

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (113.4 kB)

4:00 PM

6.3

Testing AGCM-predicted cloud and radiation properties with ARM data: The super-parameterization approach

Mikhail Ovtchinnikov, PNNL, Richland, WA; and T. Ackerman, R. Marchand, and M. Khairoutdinov

Poster PDF (734.1 kB)

4:15 PM

6.4

Improving climate projections by empirical quantification of climate forcing by aerosols

Theodore L. Anderson, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. J. Charlson, S. J. Ghan, S. Gasso, C. R. Trepte, C. A. Hostetler, D. M. Winker, L. A. Remer, and J. A. Ogren

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

6.5

Evaluation of AGCM Radiation Parameterizations in the Arctic

Dana E. Veron, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and J. F. Brodie, J. O. Pinto, and J. A. Curry

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (115.1 kB)

4:45 PM

6.6

Evaluating new cloud-radiation and hydrologic cycle parameterizations

Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (183.0 kB)

5:00 PM

6.7

A new type of idealized global climate model and its application to dust-climate interactions

Karen M. Shell, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. Somerville

Recorded presentation

5:15 PM

6.8

Cloud resolving model simulations of water and energy budgets for the Indian Ocean region: Effects of aerosols on trade wind cumuli

Greg McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and H. Wang and W. Grabowski

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (140.3 kB)

Sessions end for the day

Wed 14 Jan

7

Seasonal prediction (Room 6C)

Location: Room 6C

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:

8:30 AM

7.1

Experiments in downscaled seasonal forecasting from the ENSO signal: extreme interseasonal and intraseasonal variability of Florida dry season storminess and rainfall and the role of the MJO, PNA, and NAO

Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and R. J. Almeida

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/enso/mlbnino.html

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM

7.2

Multi Model Synthetic Superensemble Prediction System

Won-Tae Yun, Korea Meteorological Administration and Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and L. Stefanova and T. N. Krishnamurti

http://

Poster PDF (116.6 kB)

9:00 AM

7.3

Seasonal prediction effort at NCEP: toward a seamless suite of forecast products

Wanqiu Wang, SAIC at NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, G. White, and H. L. Pan

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

7.4

Validation and forecast applicability of multi-year global soil wetness products

Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD; and Z. Guo and X. Gao

Recorded presentation

8

Radiative Forcing of the Climate: Observations (Room 608)

Location: Room 608

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: Bryan C. Weare, University of California

Papers:

8:30 AM

8.1

Radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone

W. F. J. Evans, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada; and C. R. Ferguson and E. Puckrin

Poster PDF (264.0 kB)

8:45 AM

8.2

On the relationship between tropical mean radiation and SST

Bing Lin, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong, B. A. Wielicki, and Y. Hu

Poster PDF (136.0 kB)

8.3

Decadal Variations in the Tropical Radiation Budget

9:15 AM

8.4

Cloud forcing in the tropical eastern Pacific

Meghan F. Cronin, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

8.3A

Intraseasonal Variations of Earth Radiation Budget: CERES EOS/Terra Observations Versus NCEP Reanalysis 2 Data (Formerly paper JP5.15)

Takmeng Wong, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith

Poster PDF (983.9 kB)

Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Events; the The Norm Phillips Symposium; the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; the Symposium on Space Weather; the 18th Conference on Hydrology; the 20th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology; the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; the Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting, and Forecasting in the Urban Zone; and the Interactive Symposium on the Nexus of Coastal Urban Environments )

9

Observed Climate Change: Part II (Room 6C)

Location: Room 6C

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: David Changnon, Northern Illinois University

Papers:

1:30 PM

9.1

Interannual and long-term changes in middle atmosphere temperature from HALOE

Ellis Remsberg, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and L. Deaver

Poster PDF (82.8 kB)

1:45 PM

9.2

Update on Microwave-Based Atmospheric Temperatures by UAH

John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. W. Spencer and D. Braswell

Poster PDF (138.1 kB)

2:00 PM

9.3

A Self-Consistent Analysis of Climate Trend in MSU/AMSU Satellite Observations

Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and N. C. Grody

2:15 PM

9.4

Describing global temperature changes during the past half century

Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD

2:30 PM

9.5

Some Trends of Relative Sea Level in The Pacific

Bernard J. Kilonsky, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. Merrifield

2:45 PM

9.6

Recent trends in the Southern Oscillation

Todd Mitchell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace

3:00 PM

9.7

Interdecadal Changes in Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

Melissa Free, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Bister and K. Emanuel

3:15 PM

9.8

Variability of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana, Mexico

Tereza Cavazos, Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada, B. C., Mexico; and D. Rivas

3:30 PM

9.9

Detecting Arctic climate change using K�ppen climate classification and satellite NDVI

Muyin Wang, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Overland

3:45 PM

9.4a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 2

Atmospheric Oscillations and Boundary Layer Processes (Hall 4AB)

Location: Hall 4AB

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Papers:

P2.1

Propagation mechanism of boreal summertime intraseasonal oscillation

P2.2

Red Shift Phenomena Revealed in the Zonal Winds Oscillations Probably Induced by the Sunspot Cycle

G.-H. Lim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and A. -. S. Suh and Y. Suh

Poster PDF (812.9 kB)

P2.3

The Madden-Julian Oscillation Signal in the Arctic Oscillation

Jee-Hoon Jeong, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and C. H. Ho

Poster PDF (276.0 kB)

P2.4

Wave-mean-flow interaction and the annular mode

David J. Lorenz, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

P2.5

On the relationship between very low frequency North Pacific SSTA and global climate variations

Sang-Wook Yeh, COLA, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman

Poster PDF (773.7 kB)

P2.6

A seasonal intercomparison of the dominant modes of climatic variability

Kevin J. Rennert, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace

P2.7

Indian Ocean response to atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations

Galina Chirokova, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

P2.8

Assessing the influence of decadal climate variability and climate change on snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest

Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. Mote and D. P. Lettenmaier

P2.9

Synoptic disturbances in the east Pacific ITCZ and their effect on the boundary layer

Yolande Serra, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Cronin and M. McPhaden

P2.10

A Theory for Long Term Changes in the General Circulation�Corilis effect in the Solar System

John C. Freeman, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. F. Hasling

http://www.wxresearch.org/papers/coriolis2col.pdf

Poster PDF (143.6 kB)

P2.11

Does the Antarctic Oscillation Modulate Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwestern Pacific

Joo-Hong Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and C. H. Ho

Poster PDF (230.6 kB)

P2.12

Comparing convergence and/or moist-air advection zones from TPW analyses

Arief Sudradjat, University of Maryland and CICS/ESSIC, College Park, MD; and R. Ferraro

P2.13

Satellite Observations of Ocean Moisture Advection and its Effect on South American Low Level Jet and Hydrological Balances

Xiaosu Xie, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu and W. Tang

P2.14

Simple Experiments on the Relationship of Air Temperature to SST in the Tropics

Philip J. Regulski, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

P2.15

Synoptic climatology of PM2.5 and PM10 in Tucson, Arizona

P2.16

Near-surface flow regimes: Recent changes and tools for prognoses

S.C. Pryor, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and J. T. Schoof and R. J. Barthelmie

Poster PDF (736.2 kB)

P2.17

Planetary Boundary Layer Height: Lidar and Radiosonde based Observations

Segayle C. Walford, Howard University, Washington, DC; and B. B. Demoz and E. Joseph

Poster PDF (257.6 kB)

P2.18

A fire scenario builder for coarse-scale modeling of current and future fire effects based on future climate scenarios

Narasimhan Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and D. McKenzie, S. M. O'Neill, S. Ferguson, and D. V. Sandberg

P2.19

The International Polar Year 2007�2008

Sheldon Drobot, The National Academies, Washington, DC; and C. Elfring

P2.20

Seasonal heat budget of the California Current

Kathleen A. Edwards, APL and Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. A. Kelly

Poster PDF (260.9 kB)

Joint Poster Session 5

Climate Variability (JOINT with THE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY; Hall 4AB)

Location: Hall 4AB

Sponsors: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Chair: David A. Robinson, Rutgers University

Papers:

JP5.1

Nonlinear patterns of North American winter surface air temperatures associated with El Ni�o/La Ni�a

Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. Shabbar

JP5.2

The El Ni�o-Southern Oscillation and its role in cold-season tornado outbreak climatology

Katherine H. Nunn, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

Poster PDF (39.4 kB)

JP5.3

El Ni�o and precipitation in the peruvian Andes

Pablo Lagos, Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru; and Y. Silva and E. Nickl

JP5.4

Nonlinear Complex Principal Component Analysis, with Applications to Tropical Pacific Wind Variability

Sanjay S.P. Rattan, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh

JP5.5

Propagation and the Vertical Structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Kenneth R. Sperber, LLNL, Livermore, CA

JP5.6

Interannual and interdecadal variability in the Pacific region SST anomaly patterns and their impact on local climate

Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and F. A. Akyuz, I. I. Mokhov, E. P. Kelsey, D. K. Weitlich, and J. E. Woolard

Poster PDF (431.1 kB)

JP5.7

The impact of teleconnection patterns on air mass frequency and character in North American winters

Melissa Lynn Malin, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, Newark, DE

JP5.8

Northern Hemisphere snow cover variability

David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ

JP5.9

A climate report card for New Jersey

David A. Robinson, Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and J. Parlagreco

JP5.10

Examining the frequency of daily extreme events during Oklahoma�s climate record

JP5.11

The Recent Increase in Western US Streamflow Variability and Persistence

Thomas C. Pagano, USDA/Natural Resources Conservation Service/National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR; and D. Garen

Poster PDF (246.8 kB)

JP5.12

Wind climate analyses for a 61-m tower in the Southeast

Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. L. Buckley and R. J. Kurzeja

http://www.srs.gov/weathercenter/winds/C_C_winds.pdf

Poster PDF (318.3 kB)

JP5.13

Intraseasonal variability of subtropical cyclone occurrence in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean

Jason A. Otkin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

JP5.14

Interannual variability of North America summer precipitation in CAM2.0 and NSIPP AMIP-like simulations

Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam

JP5.14A

Paper JP5.15 moved to session 8 in the 15th Symp on Global Change/Climate Variations, new paper number 8.3A

JP5.16

Global Precipitation Climatology from AMSU Passive Microwave Satellite Observations

Frederick W. Chen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. H. Staelin

Poster PDF (701.7 kB)

JP5.17

High-latitude cloud and surface radiative properties from space

Joannes Berque, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. Lubin and R. Somerville

Joint Session 4

Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with the 15th Symp on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conf on Applied Climatology (Room 609/610)

Location: Room 609/610

Sponsors: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Chair: Timothy J. Brown, DRI

Papers:

4:00 PM

J4.1

Forecasting Rainfall and Floods in Bangladesh on Weekly to Seasonal Time Scales: Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (Formerly Poster JP1.12)

Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and A. R. Subbiah, T. M. Hopson, C. Hoyos, R. L. Grossman, H. -. R. Chang, K. Sahami, T. N. Palmer, D. L. T. Anderson, and A. Hossain

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

J4.2

Helping resource managers apply seasonal predictions: considerations of equity in providing knowledge development and decision support tools

Holly C. Hartmann, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and B. Imam, E. Lay, D. Lamb, and S. Sorooshian

4:30 PM

J4.3

National Long-range Hydrologic Prediction System

Qingyun Duan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (101.0 kB)

4:45 PM

J4.4

Use of a weather generator to disaggregate seasonal forecasts: Application to forecasting streamflow

M. P. Clark, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. E. Hay and S. Gangopadhyay

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

J4.5

Climate, fuels, fire and decisions: The making of national monthly and seasonal wildland fire outlooks

Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and G. G. Garfin, T. Wordell, R. Ochoa, and B. Morehouse

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

5:15 PM

J4.6

The North American (Mexican) Monsoon: MM5 modeling study implications

Dorothea Ivanova, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. L. Mitchell

Recorded presentation

J4.1A

Winter Precipitation Forecasts over the Southern High Plains

Sessions end for the day

Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

AMS Annual Awards Banquet

THUR 15 JAN

Joint Session 5

Climate Change and Urban Areas (Joint with the Symp. on Planning, Nowcasting and Forecasting in the Urban Zone and 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations; Room 609/610)

Location: Room 609/610

Sponsors: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; and the Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting, and Forecasting in the Urban Zone )

Chair: Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL

Papers:

8:30 AM

J5.1

Detection of urban effects in the climate record

Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

J5.2

Impact of land-use change and urbanization on climate

Ming Cai, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. Li and E. Kalnay

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (633.7 kB)

9:15 AM

J5.3

The impact of climate change on our cities

Martin Best, Met Office, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and R. Betts

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (99.2 kB)

9:30 AM

J5.4

Modeling future climate and air quality in the New York City metropolitan area

Kevin L. Civerolo, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Albany, NY; and J. Biswas, C. Hogrefe, J. Rosenthal, K. Knowlton, B. Lynn, J. Y. Ku, R. Goldberg, C. Rosenzweig, and P. Kinney

Recorded presentation

10

Climate Models: Evaluation and Projections, Part II (Room 608)

Location: Room 608

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL

Papers:

8:30 AM

10.1

The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Evaluating climate models in a weather forecasting framework

Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and G. L. Potter, D. L. Williamson, R. T. Cederwall, J. S. Boyle, M. Fiorino, J. J. Hnilo, J. G. Olson, S. Xie, and J. J. Yio

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (198.7 kB)

8:45 AM

10.2

Stochastic climate simulators for diagnosing regional climate variability and model physics

John W. Bergman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland

9:00 AM

10.3

The Effect of Subtropical/Extratropical Cooling on the Magnitude of El Ni�o Warming: A Numerical Study

De-Zheng Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. Zhang and S. I. Shin

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

10.4

Projecting climate change in mesoscale river basins

Eric P Salath� Jr., JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

10.5

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

Michael Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert and G. Walker

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

Joint Session 13

Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)

Location: Room 6C

Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Organizers: Michele M. Rienecker, NASA/GSFC; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University

Papers:

8:30 AM

J13.1

Evolution of the 2002-03 El Ni�o

Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA

8:45 AM

J13.2

Predictability of the 1997 and 2002 El Ninos

Alicia Karspeck, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane and D. Chen

9:00 AM

J13.3

The termination of the 2002-3 El Ni�o

Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and D. E. Harrison

9:15 AM

J13.4

The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993�2002 decade

Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert

J13.5

TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Ni�o

9:45 AM

J13.6

Development of a new seasonal forecast model at NCEP

Hua-Lu Pan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, W. Wang, and G. White

10:00 AM

J13.7

Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal Climate Means: Sensitivity to Annual Cycle and ENSO Variations

Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan

Poster PDF (967.0 kB)

10:15 AM

J13.8

Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system

Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne

Recorded presentation

10:30 AM

J13.9

The Gerrity equitable skill score as a near optimal alternative to the modified Heidke score for verification of categorical seasonal forecasts

Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

J13.10

Generalized Inversion of the Bryan & Cox ocean model and Tropical Atmosphere -Ocean (TAO ) Data

Andrew F. Bennett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and B. S. Chua

11:00 AM

J13.11

Representing model uncertainty in ensemble-based weather and climate prediction

Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

J13.12

Initialization of unstable coupled systems by breeding ensembles

Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai, M. Pena, and E. Kalnay

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (785.7 kB)

J13.13

Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles

12:00 PM

J13.14

ENSO forecast by Markov model since 1996: Strength, Weakness and Improvement

Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky

12:15 PM

J13.15

Predictability of extratropical stormtrack variations

Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

Recorded presentation

12:30 PM

J13.16

Predictability of Monthly Means based on Information Theory

Timothy M. DelSole, COLA, Calverton, MD

Recorded presentation

12:45 PM

J13.17

Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability

Michael K. Tippett, Internation Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole

Recorded presentation

1:00 PM

J13.18

POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction

Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (120.2 kB)

1:15 PM

J13.19

Seasonal Predictions from the FSU Regional Climate Model

Steven D. Cocke, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow and D. W. Shin

1:30 PM

J13.6a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

2:45 PM

J13.10a

Lunch Break

4:15 PM

J13.16a

Coffee Break

4:45 PM

J13.20a

A Hierarchy of Data-Based Enso Models

D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil

Poster Session 3

ENSO and Monsoons (Hall 4AB)

Location: Hall 4AB

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Papers:

P3.1

Variability of ENSO during the twentieth century: Evidence from three western Pacific islands

P3.2

The global nonlinear impact of SST changes in the central tropical Pacific

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo

P3.3

Establishment of the low-level wind anomalies over the western North Pacific during ENSO development

P3.4

Differences between the North Pacific and ENSO Modes

Soon-Il An, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

P3.5

Changes in the Intraseasonal Variability of Precipitation over the United States Associated with ENSO

David Small, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH; and S. Islam

Poster PDF (632.7 kB)

P3.6

Spatial coherence of Southwest U. S. rainfall on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

Eileen A. Hall-McKim, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

P3.7

Atmospheric circulation associated to extreme rainfall events in Piura, Peru, in 2002

Ken Takahashi, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Poster PDF (358.4 kB)

P3.8

TRMM and the global interannual variability of rain over the past five decades

Ziad S. Haddad, JPL and California Institute of Technical, Pasadena, CA; and J. P. Meagher, R. F. Adler, E. Smith, E. Im, and S. L. Durden

Poster PDF (215.0 kB)

P3.9

Low-frequency rainfall variability in northwest Africa and the Sahelian and Sudanian zones

Jon M. Schrage, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink, T. Bruecher, M. Christoph, P. Knippertz, and P. Speth

Poster PDF (549.1 kB)

P3.10

Nonlinear response of the N. Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation to El Ni�o/La Ni�a

Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh

P3.11

The relationship between the Tibetan Plateau heating and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall

P3.12

Study of East Asian Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

Jun Jian, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

P3.13

Relation between Winter Monsoon Index and Air Temperature around Korean Peninsula

Yong-Hoon Youn, Meteorological Research Institute, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; and I. S. Oh and H. S. Chung

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)

11

Observed Seasonal/Interannual Variability (Room 608)

Location: Room 608

Sponsor: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Chair: Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ.

Papers:

11:00 AM

11.1

The climate of 2003 in historical perspective

Levinson David, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Lawrimore, R. Heim, A. Waple, S. Stephens, and C. Tankerlsey

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

11.2

Mechanisms of land rainfall anomalies associated with tropical Atlantic variability

J. David Neelin, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. Su

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

11.3

The Scatter in Tropical Average Precipitation Anomalies

Hui Su, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

11.4

Intraseasonal modulation of precipitation over the North American monsoon region

George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and E. Hall-McKim

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.8 MB)

12:00 PM

11.5

Nonlinear Scale Interactions Via Energy Exchanges Between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

L. Stefanova, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

Poster PDF (705.4 kB)

12:15 PM

11.6

On the North Atlantic decadal variability

Lixin Wu, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Z. Liu

12:30 PM

11.7

Mechanisms for intraseasonal variability in the Northern Annular Mode

Robert X. Black, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and B. A. McDaniel

Recorded presentation

12:45 PM

11.8

A Physically-Consistent Long-term Reconstruction of the Northern Annular Mode Using Tree Rings

Justin J. Wettstein, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace

1:00 PM

11.9

Linear atmospheric response to ENSO associated SST meridional differential

Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

1:15 PM

11.10

A Model Study of Intraseasonal Oscillations over South America South America

Baode Chen, GEST, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. Chao

Poster PDF (207.8 kB)

1:30 PM

11.11

Guinea Gulf SST and Mediterranean Summer Climate: analysis of the interannual variabilty

Marina Baldi, IbiMet - CNR, Rome, Italy; and F. Meneguzzo, G. Dalu, G. Maracchi, M. Pasqui, V. Capecchi, A. Crisci, and F. Piani

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

1:45 PM

11.5a

Lunch Break

Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

Registration Desk Closes

Joint Session 6

Observed Climate Variability (JOINT with THE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (Room 609/610)

Location: Room 609/610

Sponsors: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )

Chair: Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ.

Papers:

3:30 PM

J6.1

Verifying the Reanalysis and climate models outputs using a 56-Year data set of reconstructed global precipitation

Mingyue Chen, RS Information Systems, Inc., Camp Springs, MD; and P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and T. M. Smith

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (443.2 kB)

3:45 PM

J6.2

Low Latitude Zonally Symmetric Circulations in the NCEP Reanalyses

Ioana M. Dima, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

J6.3

The NAM and PNA-like Patterns: Basis Functions for Northern Hemisphere Low Frequency Variability

Roberta Quadrelli, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace

Recorded presentation

J6.4

The Storms of 2003 in the Midwest

4:30 PM

J6.5

Recent climate variability in Antarctica from satellite-derived temperature data

David P. Schneider, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. J. Steig and J. Comiso

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.3 MB)

4:45 PM

J6.6

Monitoring climate change from geostationary satellites

Herbert Jacobowitz, Short & Associates, Inc., Silver Spring, MD; and G. J. Dittberner and J. J. Gurka

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (95.6 kB)

5:00 PM

J6.7

Temporal variations in model derived evaporation in the northeastern and midwestern U.S.

Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. L. Eggleston

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (54.8 kB)

5:15 PM

J6.8

Geostatistical Analysis of local versus Regional Feedback on Regional Climate: Synthesis of Insitu Observations and Global Analysis over Senegal, Western Africa

Souleymane Fall, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. Niyogi, F. Semazzi, R. Anyah, and J. Bowden

Poster PDF (218.0 kB)

Conference Ends

Norm Phillips Banquet

: 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Saturday, 10 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

Sunday, 11 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

9:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

1:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Tuesday, 13 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

8:30 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

8:30 AM-3:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

8:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Wednesday, 14 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

1:30 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Thursday, 15 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

8:30 AM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

11:00 AM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Saturday, 10 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

Sunday, 11 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

9:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

1:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Tuesday, 13 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

8:30 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

8:30 AM-3:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

8:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004