Session: Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C) (84th AMS Annual Meeting)

Thursday, 15 January 2004: 8:30 AM-4:30 PM

Room 6C

Organizers: Michele M. Rienecker, NASA/GSFC and Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University

Papers:

8:30 AM

J13.1

Evolution of the 2002-03 El Niño

Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA

8:45 AM

J13.2

Predictability of the 1997 and 2002 El Ninos

Alicia Karspeck, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane and D. Chen

9:00 AM

J13.3

The termination of the 2002-3 El Niño

Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and D. E. Harrison

9:15 AM

J13.4

The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993–2002 decade

Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert

J13.5

TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Niño

9:45 AM

J13.6

Development of a new seasonal forecast model at NCEP

Hua-Lu Pan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, W. Wang, and G. White

10:00 AM

J13.7

Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal Climate Means: Sensitivity to Annual Cycle and ENSO Variations

Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan

Poster PDF (967.0 kB)

10:15 AM

J13.8

Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system

Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne

Recorded presentation

10:30 AM

J13.9

The Gerrity equitable skill score as a near optimal alternative to the modified Heidke score for verification of categorical seasonal forecasts

Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

J13.10

Generalized Inversion of the Bryan & Cox ocean model and Tropical Atmosphere -Ocean (TAO ) Data

Andrew F. Bennett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and B. S. Chua

11:00 AM

J13.11

Representing model uncertainty in ensemble-based weather and climate prediction

Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

J13.12

Initialization of unstable coupled systems by breeding ensembles

Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai, M. Pena, and E. Kalnay

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (785.7 kB)

J13.13

Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles

12:00 PM

J13.14

ENSO forecast by Markov model since 1996: Strength, Weakness and Improvement

Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky

12:15 PM

J13.15

Predictability of extratropical stormtrack variations

Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

Recorded presentation

12:30 PM

J13.16

Predictability of Monthly Means based on Information Theory

Timothy M. DelSole, COLA, Calverton, MD

Recorded presentation

12:45 PM

J13.17

Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability

Michael K. Tippett, Internation Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole

Recorded presentation

1:00 PM

J13.18

POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction

Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (120.2 kB)

1:15 PM

J13.19

Seasonal Predictions from the FSU Regional Climate Model

Steven D. Cocke, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow and D. W. Shin

1:30 PM

J13.6a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

2:45 PM

J13.10a

Lunch Break

4:15 PM

J13.16a

Coffee Break

4:45 PM

J13.20a

A Hierarchy of Data-Based Enso Models

D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil

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Joint Session 13: Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)