84th AMS Annual Meeting

: Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean

Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Saturday, 10 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004


SAT 10 JAN

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004


Short Course/Student Conference Registration

Sunday, 11 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004


SUN 11 JAN

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004


Short Course Registration

Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Mon 12 Jan

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January

9:00 AM-9:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Conference Registration

9:00 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Joint Session 1
Data Assimilation and Observational Network Design. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Organizers: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL; Antonio Busalacchi, University of Maryland; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC

Papers:
  9:00 AM
THORPEX: a Global Atmospheric Research Programme
Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO

  9:30 AM
Data assimilation with deterministic ensemble filters
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO; and D. Parrish

  9:45 AM
Developments in ECMWF's 4D-Var system
Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and C. Cardinali, M. Fisher, E. Hólm, L. Isaksen, Y. Trémolet, and A. Hollingsworth

  10:00 AM
Lagrangian data assimilation and observing system design for ocean coherent structures
Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kuznetsov, H. Salman, and J. Yu

  10:15 AM
An analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations
Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  10:30 AM
Observation-quality estimation and its application in NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast (RTFDDA) system
Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, S. Low-Nam, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin

Poster PDF (525.8 kB)
  10:45 AM
The effect of local initialization on Workstation ETA
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos

Poster PDF (256.1 kB)
  11:15 AM
Evaluation of reduced-rank Kalman filters (RRKF)
Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. Hollingsworth

  11:30 AM
Welcoming Remarks

  11:45 AM
Coffee Break in Poster session room

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Joint Session 2
Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Organizer: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative
Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Reanalysis before radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill

Poster PDF (867.3 kB)
  1:45 PM
Satellite data assimilation over Hawaii
Tiziana Cherubini, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, R. Lyman, and R. Ogasawara

  2:00 PM
The impact of a wind-mass error analysis scheme on forecast skill
Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang and J. Guo

Poster PDF (570.5 kB)
  2:15 PM
A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model
Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and G. Gyarmati, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, A. V. Zimin, E. Kalnay, D. Patil, and J. A. Yorke

Poster PDF (260.0 kB)

2:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Poster Session 3
Posters of the Forecasting Symposium (Hall 4AB)
Location: Hall 4AB
Sponsor: Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean

Papers:
 
Testing the Outer Loop in NAVDAS-AR
Liang Xu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Rosmond

 
Testing a Relocatable and Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System in the AOSN Monterey Bay
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, J. A. Cummings, and P. J. Martin

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Joint Session 3
Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 3AB)
Location: Room 3AB
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Chair: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Data Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Code 910.3

Papers:
  4:00 PM
Hindcasts of the 2002 El Nino Event Made with a Coupled Model Initialized with a Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter
Christian L. Keppenne, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and N. P. Kurkowski

  4:15 PM
Physical initialization for the Regional Spectral Model
Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads and M. Kanamitsu

Poster PDF (959.5 kB)
  4:30 PM
Experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale data assimilation
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Skamarock and D. Dowell

  4:45 PM
Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model
Mingjing Tong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Poster PDF (732.5 kB)
  5:00 PM
Ensemble-based data assimilation at a coastline
Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Epifanio, and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (935.4 kB)
  5:15 PM
Amelioration of bias in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter
Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Sessions end for the Day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004


Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

Tuesday, 13 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


TUE 13 JAN

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


Joint Session 4
Model Parameterization: Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL

Papers:
  8:30 AM
Stochastic model parameterizations: Motivation, Implementation, and Impact
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO

  8:45 AM
Modifications of two convective schemes used in the NCEP Eta Model
Brad S. Ferrier, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

  9:15 AM
Grid-size Dependence of Cumulus Parameterization
Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Y. Luo

Poster PDF (350.7 kB)
  9:30 AM
The applicability of a nonlocal turbulence parameterization at cloud resolving scales
Amanda S. Adams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli


Joint Session 5
Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Location: Room 605/606
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University
Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University

Papers:
  9:15 AM
4D Ensemble Kalman filtering for assimilation of asynchronous observations
T. D. Sauer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. R. Hunt, J. A. Yorke, A. V. Zimin, E. Ott, E. J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil

  9:30 AM
The Chemical Data Assimilation Algorithm in the MCNC/BAMS Real-Time Ozone Forecast System
Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry, D. Olerud, and R. E. Imhoff

8:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


Joint Session 12
Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Location: Room 6C
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizer: Siegfried Schubert, NASA Data Assimilation Office

Papers:
  8:30 AM
Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction
Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

  10:00 AM
Analysis of recent atmospheric climate anomalies using the NSIPP-1 AGCM
Philip J Pegion, NASA-GSFC SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, M. Suarez, and Y. Chang

 
J12.8
Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting

  10:30 AM
Subseasonal to interannual prediction sensitivities in the GFDL/FMS GCM
W. Stern, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, R. Gudgel, M. Harrison, and A. Wittenberg

  10:45 AM
The physical perturbation implementation of NCEP RSM for regional climate downscaling
Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and Y. Song and K. Mo

  11:00 AM
A study of subseasonal predictability
Matthew Newman, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh

  11:15 AM
The lifespan of subseasonal locally coupled anomalies
Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai and E. Kalnay

  11:45 AM
Lingering Memory and Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction
Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Van den Dool and S. Saha

  12:00 PM
Long-range forecasting by EEOF extrapolation by linear and non-linear methods
Constantin Mares, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; and I. Mares

Poster PDF (289.5 kB)
  12:15 PM
  12:30 PM
  12:45 PM
Impacts of Rainfall Assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Scale Dynamics
Song Yang, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and L. Tao, A. Hou, and W. Olson

  1:00 PM
Forecasts of tropical rainfall with the Constracted Analog method
Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Van den Dool

  1:15 PM
Combined dynamical and statistical forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation
Warwick Norton, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Baldwin and J. Whitaker

  1:30 PM
Stratospheric memory and skill of subseasonal forecasts
Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, WA; and D. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill

  1:45 PM
A Diagnostic study of the changes in Atmospheric Moisture over the Indian Ocean prior to Monsoon Onset over Kerala
K.P. Sooraj, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, IA, India; and C. K. Rajan, B. Simon, and P. C. Joshi

  2:15 PM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  3:30 PM
Lunch Break

  5:00 PM
Coffee Break In Exhibit Hall

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


Poster Session 1
Subseasonal forecasting (Hall 4AB)
Location: Hall 4AB
Sponsor: Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean

Papers:
 
A Stochastic Perspective on Atmospheric Regime Behavior
Philip Sura, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. Sardeshmukh

 
P1.2
An investigation of the improvement of MJO simulations in SNU GCM

 
The role of GPS total column water vapor in forecasting and analyzing areas of severe convection
Cathryn L. Meyer, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. H. Vonder Haar

 
Flow Regimes Reconstruction in a nonlinear Statistical model
D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break.

11:00 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


Joint Session 6
Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Organizer: Chris Snyder, NCAR
Chair: Chris Snyder, NCAR

Papers:
  11:00 AM
Toward an effective short-range ensemble forecast system
F. Anthony Eckel, University of Washington and Air Force Weather Agency, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. P. Grimit

  11:15 AM
Multimodel fine-resolution ensembles for short-range forecasts in mountainous terrain
Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and H. Modzelewski, X. Deng, Y. Zhou, L. Huang, T. Cannon, G. Hicks II, D. Storey, M. Holmes, and J. Charbonneau

  11:30 AM
Global ensemble forecast at NCEP—configuration, implementation and plan
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and M. Wei

  11:45 AM
Ensemble augmentation with a new dressing kernel
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

  12:00 PM
Impacts of Resolution on Gridded Probability Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance
Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/topics/tsvr

Poster PDF (192.2 kB)

1:30 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


Joint Session 7
Data assimilation and observational network design: Part V (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Organizers: Rolf Langland, NRL; Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL

Papers:
  1:30 PM
The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC)
David S. Richardson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Truscott

Poster PDF (731.5 kB)
  1:45 PM
A Review of THORPEX related Research at NCEP
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

  2:00 PM
AOSN Monterey Bay Experiment: Observing and Predicting the Coastal Ocean
J. G. Bellingham, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA; and P. E. Chandler, Y. Chao, F. Chavez, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, S. Haddock, N. E. Leonard, M. A. McManus, J. D. Paduan, S. R. Ramp, and A. Robinson

  2:30 PM
Application of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system to real-time error forecasting, data assimilation and adaptive sampling off the Central California Coast during AOSN-II
Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and W. G. Leslie, C. Evangelinos, P. J. Haley, O. Logoutov, P. Moreno, A. R. Robinson, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, and S. J. Majumdar

  2:45 PM
Demonstration of a methodology for routine observing system design
Shree P. Khare, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ

  3:00 PM
Rocketsonde buoy system observing system simulation experiments
John Spagnol, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and C. Readyhough, M. Stull, J. Mundy, R. Stull, S. Green, and G. Schajer

  3:15 PM
Precision Airdrop System An Emerging Operational Capability
Joseph Dushan, Planning Systems Incorporated, Reston, VA; and R. Wright and D. Velea

  3:30 PM
Estimation of Observation Impact using the NAVDAS Adjoint System
Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. L. Baker

  4:00 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

4:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


1
New Forecast Systems
Location: Room 2A
Sponsor: Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL

Papers:
  4:30 PM
1.1
  4:45 PM
1.2
Development of a Real-Time Operational Forecast System for the Central California Coastal Ocean
Yi Chao, JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, Califonia; and Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. Li

  5:00 PM
1.3
Coupled atmosphere-ocean observations and modelling for Lunenburg Bay, Nova Scotia
Harold Ritchie, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Desjardins, J. Sheng, and L. Wang

Poster PDF (14.8 kB)
  5:15 PM
1.4

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004


Sessions end for the day

Wednesday, 14 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Wed 14 Jan

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Joint Session 8
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING/ENSEMBLES: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Organizer: Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC

Papers:
  9:00 AM
Singular vectors with an analysis error variance metric
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro and T. Rosmond

  9:15 AM

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Coffee Break

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Events; the The Norm Phillips Symposium; the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; the Symposium on Space Weather; the 18th Conference on Hydrology; the 20th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology; the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; the Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting, and Forecasting in the Urban Zone; and the Interactive Symposium on the Nexus of Coastal Urban Environments )

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Lunch Break

12:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Exhibit Hours

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Joint Session 9
Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part VI (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Location: Room 605/606
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Organizer: Timothy Hogan, Naval Research Lab

Papers:
  1:45 PM
Improved Super-Ob Radar Radial Wind Precision for the NCEP Data Assimilation and Forecast System
Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. V. Kumar and Y. Song

  2:00 PM
Assimilating Radar Data For Real-time Short-term Snowband Forecasting
Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, Y. Liu, and R. Rasmussen

  2:15 PM

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Joint Session 10
Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL

Papers:
  1:30 PM
  1:45 PM
Computing the odds on a good probability forecast
Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom

  2:00 PM
The Role of Human Forecasters During the 21st Century
Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

  2:15 PM
Ensemble forecasting and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay during the AOSN-II Experiment
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop, Y. Chao, Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. F. J. Lermusiaux

  2:30 PM

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Joint Session 11
Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Organizer: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington

Papers:
  4:00 PM
The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting
Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith

  4:15 PM
Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts?
W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen

  4:30 PM
On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting
David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter

  4:45 PM
Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?
Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt

  5:00 PM
  5:15 PM
RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System
Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


Sessions end for the day

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004


AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Thursday, 15 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


THUR 15 JAN

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Joint Session 14
Model Parameterization: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Location: Room 6A
Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean )
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL

Papers:
  8:45 AM
Evaluation of the bulk microphysical pathways and sensitivity studies for 13–14 December 2001 of IMPROVE2
Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Garvert, J. B. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass

  9:15 AM
Modeling Entrainment and Boundary Layer Growth during a Bore Event using Different Turbulence Parameterizations and LES
Mariusz Pagowski, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and J. W. Bao

  9:30 AM
Mesoscale Modeling Effects on Optical Turbulence Parameterization Performance
Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and D. A. DeBenedictis, R. J. Lefevre, and S. A. Early

Poster PDF (133.3 kB)

8:30 AM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Joint Session 13
Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Location: Room 6C
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizers: Michele M. Rienecker, NASA/GSFC; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University

Papers:
  8:30 AM
Evolution of the 2002-03 El Niño
Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA

  8:45 AM
Predictability of the 1997 and 2002 El Ninos
Alicia Karspeck, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane and D. Chen

  9:00 AM
The termination of the 2002-3 El Niño
Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and D. E. Harrison

  9:15 AM
The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993–2002 decade
Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert

 
J13.5
TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Niño

  9:45 AM
Development of a new seasonal forecast model at NCEP
Hua-Lu Pan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, W. Wang, and G. White

  10:00 AM
Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal Climate Means: Sensitivity to Annual Cycle and ENSO Variations
Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan

Poster PDF (967.0 kB)
  10:15 AM
Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system
Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne

  10:45 AM
Generalized Inversion of the Bryan & Cox ocean model and Tropical Atmosphere -Ocean (TAO ) Data
Andrew F. Bennett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and B. S. Chua

  11:30 AM
Initialization of unstable coupled systems by breeding ensembles
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai, M. Pena, and E. Kalnay

 
J13.13
Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles

  12:00 PM
ENSO forecast by Markov model since 1996: Strength, Weakness and Improvement
Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky

  12:15 PM
Predictability of extratropical stormtrack variations
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

  12:45 PM
Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability
Michael K. Tippett, Internation Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole

  1:00 PM
POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction
Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey

  1:15 PM
Seasonal Predictions from the FSU Regional Climate Model
Steven D. Cocke, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow and D. W. Shin

  1:30 PM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  2:45 PM
Lunch Break

  4:15 PM
Coffee Break

  4:45 PM
A Hierarchy of Data-Based Enso Models
D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Poster Session 2
Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Hall 4AB)
Location: Hall 4AB
Sponsor: Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean

Papers:
 
Can U.S. West Coast climate be forecast?
Steve LaDochy, California State University, Los Angeles, CA; and J. N. Brown, M. Selke, and W. C. Patzert

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)
 
CERES Data Products for Climate Studies
James V. Koziana, NASA LaRC/SAIC, Hampton, VA

 
P2.3
Examination of the skill produced by a natural analog ensemble system and its potential extension to solving the middle latitude 2-4 week forecast problem

 
Parameterization of subsurface temperatures in the Lamont ocean model using neural networks
Shuyong Li, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. Wu

 
The importance of daily verses monthly SSTs in seasonal simulations
Kathleen V. Pegion, COLA, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman and J. Shukla

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Registration Desk Closes

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Conference Ends

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004


Norm Phillips Banquet