Session: Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C) (84th AMS Annual Meeting)

84th AMS Annual Meeting

Joint Session 12: Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)

Tuesday, 13 January 2004: 8:30 AM-5:30 PM

Room 6C

Organizer: Siegfried Schubert, NASA Data Assimilation Office

Papers:

8:30 AM

J12.1

Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction

Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

J12.2

The Missing Forecasts: A discussion of the Gap between extended numerical weather prediction and seasonal climate forecasts

Chester F. Ropelewski, IRI, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

J12.3

Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability

Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

J12.4

The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Wintertime Surface Air Temperatures

Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and N. Bond

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

J12.5

Analytic Approximation of MJO-like Systems in Super-parameterization

Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

9:45 AM

J12.6

Intraseasonal prediction experiments using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model

Suranjana Saha, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and H. L. Pan

Recorded presentation

10:00 AM

J12.7

Analysis of recent atmospheric climate anomalies using the NSIPP-1 AGCM

Philip J Pegion, NASA-GSFC SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, M. Suarez, and Y. Chang

Recorded presentation

J12.8

Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting

10:30 AM

J12.9

Subseasonal to interannual prediction sensitivities in the GFDL/FMS GCM

W. Stern, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, R. Gudgel, M. Harrison, and A. Wittenberg

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

J12.10

The physical perturbation implementation of NCEP RSM for regional climate downscaling

Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and Y. Song and K. Mo

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (707.4 kB)

11:00 AM

J12.11

A study of subseasonal predictability

Matthew Newman, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh

11:15 AM

J12.12

The lifespan of subseasonal locally coupled anomalies

Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai and E. Kalnay

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (168.0 kB)

11:30 AM

J12.13

A Synoptic Model of Low Frequency Variability with Application to Subseasonal Prediction

Klaus M. Weickmann, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and E. Berry

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

J12.14

Lingering Memory and Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction

Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Van den Dool and S. Saha

Recorded presentation

12:00 PM

J12.15

Long-range forecasting by EEOF extrapolation by linear and non-linear methods

Constantin Mares, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; and I. Mares

Poster PDF (289.5 kB)

12:15 PM

J12.16

Probabilistic Forecasting of South-East Asian Intraseasonal Variability using a Wavelet Banding Technique

Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

Recorded presentation

12:30 PM

J12.17

Improved intraseasonal South Asian monsoon forecasts using a GCM by comparison to wavelet analysis of empirical precipitation data

Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. Hoyos and P. J. Webster

Recorded presentation

12:45 PM

J12.18

Impacts of Rainfall Assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Scale Dynamics

Song Yang, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and L. Tao, A. Hou, and W. Olson

Recorded presentation

1:00 PM

J12.19

Forecasts of tropical rainfall with the Constracted Analog method

Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Van den Dool

1:15 PM

J12.20

Combined dynamical and statistical forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation

Warwick Norton, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Baldwin and J. Whitaker

Recorded presentation

1:30 PM

J12.21

Stratospheric memory and skill of subseasonal forecasts

Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, WA; and D. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill

Recorded presentation

1:45 PM

J12.22

A Diagnostic study of the changes in Atmospheric Moisture over the Indian Ocean prior to Monsoon Onset over Kerala

K.P. Sooraj, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, IA, India; and C. K. Rajan, B. Simon, and P. C. Joshi

2:00 PM

J12.23

International stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP): Initial results on exploring the new approach to regional climate modeling and prediction ( Formerly paper j13.20)

Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Cote, M. Deque, B. Dugas, and J. McGregor

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

J12.5a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

3:30 PM

J12.10a

Lunch Break

5:00 PM

J12.16a

Coffee Break In Exhibit Hall

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