84th AMS Annual Meeting

Wednesday, 14 January 2004: 4:15 PM
Winter Precipitation Forecasts over the Southern High Plains
Room 609/610
Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, Lubbock, TX
Past research here has shown that Texas winter wheat production is strongly affected by winter rainfall variability associated with the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Current research using a probabilistic neural network reveals the potential for predicting October-February rainfall over the Southern High Plains based on the state of Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure during the previous summer and spring months. The ability to forecast winter precipitation and the resulting impacts on grazing potential, and to make management decisions that exploit that forecast information, could result in increased profits to ranchers.

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