Monday, 15 January 2007: 4:15 PM
The non-stationary correlation between Sahel precipitation indices and Atlantic Hurricane activity
214C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Indices of annual rainfall for three domains of sub-Saharan West Africa have been extended through the 2005 monsoon season using in situ observations. These and similar indices have been used in the past as predictors of the Atlantic hurricane season activity. However, the strength of the relationship between these rainfall indices and various measures of hurricane activity (e.g., accumulated cyclone energy, hurricane days, and major hurricane days) can be shown to vary significantly on decadal time scales. Time series have been constructed that reflect the strength of these relationships, based on running values of Kendall's tau. These time series are highly correlated with sea surface temperatures in regions both within and remote from the Atlantic, suggesting some of the mechanisms by which sub-Saharan precipitation is linked to hurricane activity.