87th AMS Annual Meeting

Session 7: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Monday, 15 January 2007

9:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 15 January 2007


Plenary Session for the Presidential Forum (Presidential Forum will then run parallel to other sessions throughout the day)
Location: Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2007


1
Model Diagnostics - Climate Change Studies
Location: 214B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL

Papers:
  10:45 AM
1.1
Changes in the Arctic Oscillation under increased atmospheric greenhouse gases
Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh, G. Boer, and F. W. Zwiers

  11:15 AM
1.3
  11:30 AM
1.4
Climate variability over South America in IPCC-AR4 simulations of the 20th century
Carolina Vera, CIMA/Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Buenos Aires-CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and G. Silvestri

  11:45 AM
1.5
Assessing consistency between EOS MLS and ECMWF analyzed and forecast estimates of cloud ice
Jui-Lin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, J. H. Jiang, and A. M. Tompkins

10:45 AM-2:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2007


Joint Session 7
Measurements and Modeling of Aerosols (Joint with Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, Forum on Climate Change as Manifested by Changes in Weather, and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
Location: 212A (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather )
CoChair: Yang Zhang, North Carolina State Univ.

Papers:
  10:45 AM
Improvements to Aerosol Size Distributions in CMAQ
Robert A. Elleman, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. S. Covert

  11:00 AM
Simulating Secondary Organic Aerosol: Accuracy versus Computational Efficiency
Ping Liu, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Zhang

 
J7.4
Coupling of CB05 gas-phase chemical mechanism with MADRID aerosol module in WRF/Chem

  11:30 AM
Size Distribution and Hygroscopic Properties of Agricultural Aerosols
Naruki Hiranuma, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and S. D. Brooks, B. W. Auvermann, and R. Littleton

  11:45 AM
Evaluation of the aerosol direct effect on a mesoscale simulation
Steven E. Peckham, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES-Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, S. A. McKeen, J. D. Fast, R. Zaveri, and S. Chung

  12:00 PM
Recognition of NASA Student Travel Award Winners in the field of Atmospheric Chemistry

  12:15 PM
Lunch Break

  1:45 PM
Dust sandstorm dynamics analysis in Northern China by means of atmospheric, emission, dispersion modeling
Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology and National Research Council/IBIMET-CNR, Firenze, FI, Italy; and L. Bottai, C. Busillo, F. Calastrini, G. Gualtieri, F. Guarnieri, P. Scalas, and L. Torriano

 
J7.7
Episodic particulate matter modeling in a semi-arid/arid area over the U.S./Mexico border: Incorporating a wind-blown dust emissions model into the MODELS-3/CMAQ system

  2:15 PM
The Instability associated with the Cross-Atlantic Transport of Saharan Dust and its Meteorological Implications
Sun Wong, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler, P. R. Colarco, and A. Da Silva

11:45 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2007


2B
General Session on Climate Variability
Location: 214C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Papers:
  11:45 AM
The climate of 2006 in historical perspective
Karin Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Heim, D. Levinson, S. Stephens, and C. Tankersley

  12:00 PM
Lunch Break

  1:30 PM
Climatic Normals for Changing Climate
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. E. Livezey and H. M. Van den Dool

  2:15 PM
Atmospheric blockings - Their influence on the NAO and PNA
Mischa Croci-Maspoli, MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland; and C. B. Schwierz and H. C. Davies

Poster PDF (204.9 kB)
  2:30 PM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  4:00 PM
The interannual and interdecadal variability in hurricane acticity over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Ocean
Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and T. K. Latham, T. H. Magill, J. V. Clark, and P. S. Market

  4:15 PM
 
2B.7
Decadal variability of ENSO persistence barrier in ocean heat content and its phase Lag with the SST barrier

  4:45 PM
  5:00 PM
Assessment of US climate variations using the US Climate Extremes Index
Bryan A. Burkholder, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Karoly

  5:15 PM
A new method for time series filtering near endpoints
Anthony Arguez, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and P. Yu and J. J. O'Brien

1:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2007


2A
Model Diagnostic Studies - General
Location: 214B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Wide band power and harmonic amplitude of precipitation
A.C. Ruane, ECPC, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA; and J. O. Roads

  2:00 PM
Influence of surface water on US regional climate forecasts
A. M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads

  2:15 PM
Evaluation of cloud-radiation interaction within a single column model and regional climate modeling frameworks
Suryun Ham, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Seoul, South Korea; and H. Park and S. Y. Hong

  2:30 PM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  4:00 PM
Identifying climate model deficiencies in simulating tropical intraseasonal variability: application of weather-forecasting and single-column-modeling methodologies
Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. S. Boyle, S. A. Klein, S. Xie, J. J. Hnilo, D. L. Williamson, J. Olson, R. Pincus, X. Wei, and G. Zhang

  4:15 PM
  4:30 PM
Impact of drifted basic states on the simulated tropical intraseasonal variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM
Harun Ar Rashid, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and O. Alves and H. Hendon

  4:45 PM
  5:00 PM
The impact of the boundary layer parameterization on the weather and climate of the GEOS-5 model
Caterina M. Tassone, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. T. Bacmeister and L. L. Takacs

  5:15 PM
Why simulating the ITCZ in GCMs is so difficult
Winston Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez, J. T. Bacmeister, B. Chen, and L. L. Takacs

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2007


Joint Poster Session 1
Climate change: in Hydrometeorological Variables, Detection & Attribution (Joint Between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 23rd Conference on IIPS, Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather, and the 5th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to Environmental Sciences)
Location: Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather; the Fifth Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; and the 23rd Conference on IIPS )
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

Papers:
 
Poster JP1.9 has been moved. New paper number 2B.7A in the 23IIPS Program

 
Spatial coherence of rainfall variations using the Oklahoma Mesonet
K. Margret Sturgis, Oklahoma Climatological Survey and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. A. McPherson, M. B. Richman, and D. J. Karoly

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
 
Poster Moved. New Paper Number 4A.11A

 
What can we (not?!) say about historical temperature changes from Radiosonde records?
Peter Thorne, Cooperative Insitute for Climate and Satellites; and M. McCarthy and H. Titchner

 
Blocking in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere: An update to include 2000 - 2006
Joseph V. Clark, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. M. Mihalka and A. R. Lupo

 
GPS radio occultations of arctic temperature profiles
Jaclyn Trzaska, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and J. Francis and D. E. Veron

 
Identifying Connections Between Temperature Trends and Station Changes in the United States
Rebecca A. Smith, Florida State Univ./COAPS, Tallahasssee, FL; and J. J. O'Brien

 
Comparison of glacier-inferred temperatures with observations and climate model simulations
Diandong Ren, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and D. J. Karoly

 
The search for ocean influences on midlatitude cyclones
Richard E. Danielson, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada

 
Regional climate change expected in Eastern/Central Europe
Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, C. Torma, and A. Hunyady

 
Increased Precipitation is Climate Change imposed by Anthropogenic Activities
Pankaj Kumar Sinha, Cochin University of Science & Technology, Cochin, India

 
Impact of land cover on the regional response to global warming
Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and Y. K. Lim and E. Kalnay

 
Evidence in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

 
Detected trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Central/Eastern European region
Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy

Poster PDF (446.7 kB)

Joint Poster Session 2
Model Diagnostics and General Climate Variability (Joint with Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
Location: Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather )

Papers:
 
Impact of precipitation characteristics on model's horizontal resolution and orography
Akio Kitoh, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and O. Arakawa

 
Low-level cloud amount simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km grid size
Shoji Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Inoue and H. Kawai

 
Downscaled 1997/1998 Summer over East Asia using the Regional Spectral Model
E-Hyung Park, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Hong

Poster PDF (832.7 kB)
 
Extreme hydrologic events from an ensemble of CCSM3 climate change simulations
Marcia L. Branstetter, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. J. Erickson III

 
Implementation of a Double Fourier Series (DFS) Dynamic Core in a Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model
Hoon Park, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and H. B. Cheong and S. Y. Hong

Poster PDF (405.8 kB)
 
The Role of MJO in Ensemble Forecasts of the 1997/98 El Nińo in the POAMA1 System
Li Shi, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and O. Alves, H. H. Hendon, and G. Wang

 
NCEP global ensemble based anomaly forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

 
Assessment of the Severe Weather Environment in North America Simulated by Global Climate Models
Patrick T. Marsh, NOAA/NSSL & OU/CIMMS/SoM, Norman, OK; and H. Brooks and D. J. Karoly

Poster PDF (608.4 kB)
 
Assessment of global climate models performance from the characterization of duration, intensity and frequency of daily rainfall. Application to African Sahel
Amadou Idrissa Bokoye, EC/MSC/Ouranos Consortium, Inc., Montreal, QC, Canada; and P. Gachon, N. Gauthier, D. Parishkura, A. Cotnoir, G. Vigeant, and J. Milton

Poster PDF (632.0 kB)
 
A successful story in predicting NAM events by the operational NCEP's GFS model
Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and C. S. Shin and H. Van den Dool

 
Asian dust - pollution interactions inducing more solar radiation absorption: Results from ground-based sky radiation measurements
B. J. Sohn, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and T. Nakajima, H. W. Chun, and K. Aoki

 
Interaction between dust storms, precipitation and Gulf of California moisture surges in the Paso del Norte region
Karina Apodaca, Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris, A. Y. Lozano, J. Negrete, and D. R. M. Fitzgerald

 
Atmospheric blocking and patterns of low-frequency variability arising from the breaking of upper level Rossby waves
T. J. Woollings, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and B. J. Hoskins and M. Blackburn

Poster PDF (484.2 kB)
 
Comparison of observed and modeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation
Dmitry Kiktev, Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia; and J. Caesar and L. V. Alexander

 
Understanding the climatology of small-scale patterns of orographic precipitation: progress from the Olympic Mountains
Justin R. Minder, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. M. Anders, G. H. Roe, and D. Durran

 
Innovations in Spatial Analysis in the Bureau of Meteorology
David Jones, BOM, Vic., 3001, Australia; and D. X. Wang, N. Plummer, D. I. Grant, and A. Rea

 
Links between West Africa monsoon variability and summer anomalies in the western Mediterranean
Marina Baldi, IBIMET/CNR, Rome, Italy; and G. A. Dalu and M. Gaetani

 
On the mechanisms resulting in post-fire flash floods: a case study
Lee Tryhorn, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and A. Lynch and R. Abramson

 
Climate Variability and the Texas Fire Weather Season of 2005–2006: An Historic Perspective of a Statewide Disaster
Kurt M. Van Speybroeck, NOAA/NWS, Brownsville, TX; and A. R. Patrick and M. C. Oaks

Poster PDF (211.7 kB)
 
Bioclimatological aspects of sudden cardiovascular death cases
Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, Z. Kis, K. Toro, G. Dunai, N. Szlavik, and E. Keller

 
Southern California upwelling: Is recent weakening a result of global warming?
Steve LaDochy, California State University, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and P. Ramirez and W. C. Patzert

Poster PDF (128.0 kB)
 
Abrupt Seasonal Migration of the ITCZ into the Summer Hemisphere
Peng Xian, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Miller

Tuesday, 16 January 2007

8:30 AM-11:45 AM: Tuesday, 16 January 2007


Joint Session 2
Joint Session between 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change and 23IIPS
Location: 214C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on IIPS; and the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Stephen M. Holt, Mitretek Systems; Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL; John Roads, SIO/Univ. of California; Lucie A. Vincent, Environment Canada

Papers:
  8:30 AM
The National Severe Storms Laboratory Historical Weather Data Archives Data Management And Web Access System
Willa H. Zhu, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. M. Schultz, D. Kennedy, K. Kelleher, and N. Soreide

  8:45 AM
Observing System Web Portal
Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and J. Sirott, D. W. Denbo, and W. H. Zhu

  9:00 AM
NOAA's integrated observations and data management analysis tools
Martin Yapur, NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Reining and J. Barkley

  9:15 AM
NOAA State of the Arctic Report
Jacqueline A. Richter-Menge, ERDC-Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and J. E. Overland, A. Proshutinsky, V. Romanovsky, and N. Soreide

  9:45 AM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  11:00 AM
Interactive Web Access to Ocean Surface Currents Analyses – Realtime Data
Willa H. Zhu, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Bonjean, G. Lagerloef, N. N. Soreide, and J. J. O'Brien

  11:15 AM
Geoprocessing Sea Ice Datasets to Derive Climate Fields
Tracy DeLiberty, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and S. Ackley, C. Geiger, M. Van Woert, and A. Worby

 
J2.8
A Java Based Graphical User Interface for Numerical Model Simulation and Analysis

  11:45 AM
Tropical Cyclone Wind Probablities: Better Defining Uncertainty at the National Hurricane Center
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. D. Knabb

8:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2007


3
Detection and attribution of regional climate change
Location: 214B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

Papers:
  8:30 AM
3.1
Detection of Human Influence on 20th Century Precipitation Trends
Xuebin Zhang, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and F. W. Zwiers, G. Hegerl, F. H. Lambert, N. P. Gillett, and S. Solomon

 
3.3
Satellite measurements of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases

  9:15 AM
3.4
Changes in the Fabric of the Arctic's Greenhouse Blanket
Jennifer A. Francis, Rutgers University, Highlands, NJ; and J. Trzaska and E. Hunter

  9:30 AM
3.5
On the Origin of the Tropical Atlantic Decadal Oscillation based on the
Gyu-Ho Lim, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and Y. C. Suh and B. M. Kim

Poster PDF (505.7 kB)
  9:45 AM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  11:00 AM
3.6
Detection of a Global and Caribbean climate changes
Nazario D. Ramirez, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and O. Julca and J. Gonzalez

  11:30 AM
3.8
Modeling the effects of global warming and land use changes on California
Bryan C. Weare, University of California, Davis, CA; and H. Du

  11:45 AM
3.9
The 20th century East Asian summer monsoon simulated by coupled climate models of IPCC AR4
Tianjun Zhou, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and A. Dai

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2007


Joint Session 8
Air Quality and Climate Change (Joint with Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, Forum on Climate Change as Manifested by Changes in Weather, and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
Location: 212A (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather )
CoChair: Brian K. Lamb, Washington State Univ.

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Assessment of Long-Term Impacts of Regional Climate Changes on Air Quality
Yang Zhang, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and R. Leung

  1:45 PM
Global climate change impacts on air quality in North America
Efthimios Tagaris, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and K. J. Liao, K. Manomaiphiboon, A. G. Russell, S. He, J. H. Woo, P. Amar, and L. R. Leung

http://presentation

Poster PDF (107.0 kB)
  2:00 PM
Impacts of Biogenic and Anthropogenic Emissions on Photochemical Oxidants over the Pearl River Delta Region, China
Xuemei Wang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; and L. Wenshi and Z. L. Yang

  2:15 PM
A comparison of AURA/MLS CO measurement with 2 global chemical models
Jonathan Jiang, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and L. Neary, J. McConnell, H. Su, and J. Kaminski

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2007


4B
The African Monsoon
Location: 214C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: John E. Janowiak, NWS/NCEP/CPC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
  1:45 PM
Characterization of the diurnal cycle of the West African Monsoon around the monsoon onset
Benjamin Sultan, IRD, Paris, France; and S. Janicot and P. J. Drobinski

Poster PDF (228.4 kB)
  2:15 PM
40 days periodicity mode of variability in the West and Central African monsoon
Flore Mounier, CNRS, Paris, France; and S. Janicot

http://www.lodyc.jussieu.fr/~fmlod/ams4b4.pdf

  2:30 PM
Waves interactions during the 1984 African monsoon onset
Flore Mounier, CNRS, Paris, France; and S. Janicot and G. N. Kiladis

http://www.lodyc.jussieu.fr/~fmlod/ams4b5.ppt

  2:45 PM
Subseasonal forecasting with the NCEP Climate Forecasting System in the Western Sahel and tropical Atlantic
Augustin Vintzileos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, VA; and H. L. Pan, W. M. Thiaw, D. Behringer, D. Stokes, and S. Saha

1:30 PM-5:45 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2007


4A
Changes in hydrometeorological fields
Location: 214B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Is Rainfall Increasing in the Tropics?
Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC and U. Md. College Park/ESSIC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Gu and G. J. Huffman

  1:45 PM
Improved monitoring of hemispheric snow cover extent
David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and T. Estilow

  2:00 PM
Trends in United States snowfall: 1948–2005
Dale Kaiser, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN; and E. L. Soderstrom

  2:30 PM
Origins of the Caribbean rainfall bimodal behavior
J.E. Gonzalez, Santa Clara Univ., Santa Clara, CA; and M. E. Angeles, D. E. Comarazamy, N. D. Ramirez, and C. A. Tepley

  3:00 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

  3:30 PM
Simulated change of drought over Asia under global warming scenario
Do-Woo Kim, Pukyung National University, Busan, South Korea; and H. R. Byun and S. U. Han

  3:45 PM
The characteristic and periodicity of drought events in Korea
Sun-Ju Lee, Pukyung National University, Busan, South Korea; and H. R. Byun, S. U. Han, and D. W. Kim

  4:00 PM
Early Detection of Climate Change Signals in Local Historical High Frequency Precipitation Series
Bernardo Gozzini, IBIMET - CNR, Sesto Fiorentino, Italy; and G. Maracchi, F. Meneguzzo, M. Pasqui, G. Menduni, B. Mazzanti, and F. Volpini

Poster PDF (2.4 MB)
  4:30 PM
Paper Moved. New Poster Number JP1.2A

  4:31 PM
Wind trends in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland 1960–2004 and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Gwenna Corbel, UHI Millennium Institute, Thurso, United Kingdom; and J. T. Allen and S. W. Gibb

  4:45 PM
Comparing Ten Years of Measurements of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor by MOZAIC with the ECMWF Product
Zhengzhao Luo, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. Kley, R. Johnson, and H. G. J. Smit

  5:00 PM
  5:15 PM
Trends in cloud types in Canada
Ewa J. Milewska, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada

1:40 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2007


Joint Session 3
Artificial Intelligence and Climate Applications (Joint between 5th Conference on Applications of Artificial Intelligence in the Environmental Sciences and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
Location: 210B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Fifth Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; and the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Antonello Pasini, CNR; Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, Univ. of Maryland and SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC

Papers:
  1:40 PM
Welcoming Remarks

  2:15 PM
Accurate and fast neural network emulation of full, long, and short wave, model radiation used for decadal climate simulations with NCAR CAM
Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, Univ. of Maryland and NOAA/NCEP/EMC/SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Fox-Rabinovitz and A. Belochitski

Poster PDF (34.6 kB)
  2:45 PM
Linking Climatic Variables with Colombian Development Indicators via Inductive Learning Tools
John Alexander Segura Sr., Hydrosciences Research Group, Bogotá, Colombia; and R. J. Brito, Y. R. Coronel, and N. Obregón

  3:00 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

  4:00 PM
Robust nonlinear multivariate statistical models for climate analysis
Alex J. Cannon, Meteorological Service of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh

  4:15 PM
Finding interesting climate phenomena by exploratory statistical techniques
Alexander Ilin, Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo, Finland; and H. Valpola and E. Oja

http://www.cis.hut.fi/alexilin/climate/

  4:30 PM
Multiple imputation through machine learning algorithms
Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. B. Trafalis and I. Adrianto

  4:45 PM
Object-oriented analysis of precipitation systems in NCEP Stage II analyses
Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp

Wednesday, 17 January 2007

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2007


Joint Session 4
Joint session between 19CVC and 21st Conf. on Hydrology
Location: 214B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 21st Conference on Hydrology )

Papers:
  8:45 AM
Precipitation probability distributions in drought-prone regions
Gilbert P. Compo, U. of Colorado/CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO CO; and P. Sardeshmukh and C. A. Smith

  9:00 AM
Evidence for interannual to decadal variations in Hadley and Walker Circulations and links to water and energy fluxes
F. R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and M. G. Bosilovich and T. L. Miller

  9:15 AM
Evaluations of land/ocean skin temperatures observed in the ISCCP satellite datasets, and assimilated in the NCEP and ERA reanalyses
Ben-Jei Tsuang, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan; and M. D. Chou, Y. Zhang, and A. Roesch

  9:30 AM
Effects of past and future climate change on ski areas
Philip W. Mote, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet, J. Casson, and D. Reading

8:30 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2007


Joint Session 1
Analyses and applications spanning broad time and space scales (Joint Session between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change and the 16th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Location: 214C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 16th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Chair: Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts

Papers:
  8:30 AM
The impact of the MJO-bridging the gap between weather and climate
Alexis Donald, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia; and S. M. Lennox, H. Meinke, and N. C. White

  8:45 AM
Linking weather and climate across time scales-A case study in Altay
Zhuoting Wu, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ; and H. Zhang and B. Li

Poster PDF (147.9 kB)
  9:00 AM
Reliable statistical inference for weather and climate
Alexander Gluhovsky, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and E. Agee

Poster PDF (83.6 kB)
 
J1.5
Intercomparison of the Stratospheric Performance of NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 Reanalyses

  9:45 AM
Global sea surface temperatures and North American fire danger variability
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, Nevada; and B. L. Hall

  10:00 AM
Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

  10:30 AM
Evaluating IPCC rainfall and food aid tendencies for food insecure Africa
Chris C. Funk, USGS, Santa Barbara, CA; and J. Verdin and M. Brown

  10:45 AM
Desert dust storms in Northern China: a trajectory analysis for the last 25 years
Francesca Guarnieri, NRC/IBIMET-CNR, Florence, Italy; and M. Pasqui

  11:00 AM
An Observational and Modeling Study of the Winter-to-Spring Transition in East Asia-Onset of the South China Spring Rain
LinHo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and X. Huang and N. C. Lau

  11:15 AM
A preliminary back-trajectory and air mass climatology for the Shenandoah Valley (Formerly J3.16 for Applied Climatology)
Robert E. Davis, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and L. Sitka, D. M. Hondula, S. Gawtry, D. Knight, T. Lee, and J. Stenger

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

11:15 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2007


5A
The diurnal cycle
Location: 214B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Kenneth R. Sperber, LLNL

Papers:
  11:30 AM
Diurnal cycles of cloud forcing of the surface radiation budget
Pamela E. Mlynczak, SAIC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith, P. W. Stackhouse Jr., and J. C. Mikovitz

  11:45 AM
Comparison of diurnal cycle of outgoing longwave flux from ERBE measurements with a climate model
G. Louis Smith, National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA; and A. Slingo and P. E. Mlynczak

  12:00 PM
Lunch Break (Cash and Carry available in the Exhibit Hall)

  1:45 PM
 
5A.6
Diurnal variability of the tropical upper ocean and its climate impacts

  2:15 PM
A Diurnal Radiative Forcing of Dust Aerosols over East Asia
Ji-Young Kim, University of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. C. Wang

  2:30 PM
Modulation of Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Convective Clouds by the MJO
Baijun Tian, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. Waliser and E. Fetzer

  2:45 PM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  4:15 PM
Influence of Sea-Surface Temperature on the Diurnal Cycle of the North American Monsoon System
Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang, V. E. Kousky, W. Shi, and W. Higgins

  4:30 PM
Diurnal Cycle Variations if Precipitation over the Americas
John E. Janowiak, NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky and R. Joyce

  4:45 PM
Variations in the daily cycle along the Gulf of California during NAME 2004
Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and L. M. Rodriguez-Manzanet, P. Zuidema, and R. H. Johnson

  5:00 PM
Simulations of Warm Season Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over the Continental United States and Northern Mexico in General Circulation Models
Myong-In Lee, UMBC/GEST, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, M. J. Suarez, I. M. Held, A. Kumar, J. E. Schemm, N. C. Lau, J. J. Ploshay, H. K. Kim, T. L. Bell, and S. H. Yoo

  5:15 PM
Diurnal variations of upper and middle tropospheric humidity and their relations to convective activities over tropical Africa from Meteosat-8 measurements
B. J. Sohn, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and E. S. Chung, J. Schmetz, and M. Koenig

  5:30 PM

11:30 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2007


5B
Session Co-Sponsored by the Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere
Location: 214C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Lisan Yu, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Papers:
  11:30 AM
Variability of Sea-Air Interactions Associated with Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Katrina
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Surakanti, H. Chekuru, M. Benjamin, and R. Karim

Poster PDF (548.3 kB)
  11:45 AM
The response of Arctic sea ice to the North Pacific Oscillation
Megan Linkin, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam

  12:00 PM
Lunch Break (Cash & Carry available in the Exhibit Hall)

  1:30 PM
Paper 5B.3 has been moved. New Poster Number is JP2.25

  2:00 PM
Paper 5B.5 Moved. New Paper Number JP4.28

  2:30 PM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  4:00 PM
Influence of mean climate on simulation of ENSO
Xiaohua Pan, George Mason Univ./COLA, Beltsville, MD; and B. Huang and J. Shukla

  4:15 PM
  4:30 PM
  4:45 PM
Decadal change in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Hye-Rim Kim, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and S. I. An

Poster PDF (960.7 kB)
  5:15 PM
Large eddy simulation of coherent structures in cold air outbreaks
Ernest Agee, Purdue Univeristy, West Lafayette, IN; and B. MacCall and A. Gluhovsky

Poster PDF (414.6 kB)

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2007


Joint Poster Session 3
Diurnal (Joint between the 21st Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Applied Climatology, and the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
Location: Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 16th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 21st Conference on Hydrology )

Papers:
 
Detection of Migrating Tides in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere using the CHAMP Radio Occultation Data
Zhen Zeng, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. J. Randel, S. Sokolovskiy, C. Deser, Y. H. Kuo, M. E. Hagan, and J. Du

 
Poster JP3.2 has been moved. New Paper number is 5A.6A

 
Early morning rainfall over the Strait of Malacca
Mikiko Fujita, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and F. Kimura, P. Wu, and M. Yoshizaki

Poster PDF (969.6 kB)
 
Diurnal variation of optically thin water cloud
Toshiro Inoue, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and K. Kawamoto

 
Interannual variability of diurnal warming of the sea surface temperature
Carol Anne Clayson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida


Joint Poster Session 4
Joint Poster: Climate & Extremes, Linking Weather and Climate (Joint with Second Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, Symposium on Connections Between Mesoscale Processes and Climate Variability, 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, and Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather)
Location: Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather; the Symposium on Connections Between Mesoscale Processes and Climate Variability; and the Second Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research )

Papers:
 
Hydrological variability and trends in global reanalyses
Junye Chen, Univ. of Maryland/ESSIC & NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and M. G. Bosilovich

Poster PDF (331.3 kB)
 
An investigation of ENSO-related parameters used to predict Australian tropical cyclone activity
Hamish A. Ramsay, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. H. Goebbert, M. Leplastrier, and L. M. Leslie

 
Poster JP4.5 has been moved. New Paper number 2B.1A

 
The relationship between actual and potential intensities of tropical cyclones on an interannual time scale
Allison A. Wing, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and A. H. Sobel and S. J. Camargo

 
Observations and predictability of tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific Ocean
Kevin H. Goebbert, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. A. Ramsay, L. M. Leslie, and M. Leplastrier

 
Impact of ENSO, NAO, and PDO on monthly extreme temperature and precipitation
J. Brolley, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. O'Brien

 
Quantifying the influence of environmental conditions on the effect of winter wheat
Cynthia A. Van Den Broeke, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. A. McPherson

Poster PDF (861.2 kB)
 
Trends in Australia's climate means and extremes: a global context
Lisa V. Alexander, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and N. Nicholls, A. Lynch, P. Hope, D. A. Collins, and B. Trewin

 
A generalized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. M. Furrer

 
Understanding the local and regional impacts of large wind farms
Amanda S. Adams, Univ. of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada; and D. W. Keith

 
Western Arctic storm surge and extreme cyclones: a factorial analysis of fifty years of flooding
Amanda H. Lynch, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and L. R. Lestak, P. Uotila, E. N. Cassano, and L. Xie

 
Weather-Climate Linkage Leading to the 24-29 June 2006 Excessive East Coast Rainfall
Edward Berry, NOAA, Dodge City, KS; and K. M. Weickmann

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)
 
Trends towards wetter hurricane basins
J. Marshall Shepherd, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. L. Mote

 
Tornado climatology and predictability by ENSO phase in the North Central U.S.: A compositing study
Barbara E. Mayes, NOAA/NWS WFO Quad Cities IA/IL, Davenport, IA; and C. Cogil, G. Lussky, and R. Ryrholm

Poster PDF (819.9 kB)
 
The "Perfect Storms" of 1991: An intraseasonal example of a link between weather and climate
Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

 
The Impact of Local and Global Climate Variation/Change on Extreme Weather Events in the South Central Texas
Xianwei Wang Sr., The University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX; and H. Xie Sr. and H. Sharif

 
Severe convective storms in past and future climates using a scale-spanning, multiple-model approach
Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and B. A. Halvorson, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and M. E. Baldwin

 
Predicting extreme hurricane winds in the United States
Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

 
Interactions between flood management decisions and scientific uncertainty about the climatological risk of extreme flooding
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and O. Wilhelmi, M. Downton, and E. Gruntfest

 
Impacts of recurving West Pacific tropical cyclones on extratropical predictability in the Northern Hemisphere
Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. Bosart

 
Identifying patterns and trends in severe storm environments using re-analysis data.
Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, H. Brooks, and B. Brown

 
ENSO and Global Daily to 3-Hourly Precipitation Extremes
Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and S. Wuensch and R. F. Adler

 
Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intra-seasonal prediction
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pena and A. Vintzileos

Poster PDF (61.3 kB)

Thursday, 18 January 2007

8:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2007


Joint Session 5
intersection between climate change policy and economics (Joint between the 2nd Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, 16th Conference on Applied Climatology, and the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
Location: 214C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Second Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the 16th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts; Anthony Socci, AMS Policy Program

Papers:
  8:30 AM
  8:45 AM
The Role of Boundary Organizations in the Dissemination of Climate Information to Support Agricultural Production in Argentina
Alejandra Celis, CENTRO Estudios Sociales y Ambientales, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M. G. Caputo and G. Podesta

  9:00 AM
A Climate Services Division-A Second Look
Mark A. Shafer, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK

  9:15 AM
  9:30 AM
Individual Decision-Making: Where Climate and Policy Meet
Guillermo Podesta, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. U. Weber, F. Bert, D. Letson, C. A. Laciana, M. Re, and A. N. Menendez

  9:45 AM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  11:00 AM
  11:30 AM
Next steps for the AMS symposia on policy and socio-economic research
William Hooke, AMS Policy Program, Washington, DC


6
Linking weather and climate I
Location: 214B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Edward O'Lenic, NOAA/NWS/CPC; Wayne Higgins (Chair after the Poster Viewing), NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC

Papers:
  8:30 AM
6.1
Extratropical stormtrack variations associated with global SST changes
Gilbert P. Compo, Climate Diagnostics Center, CIRES and PSD/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh

  8:45 AM
6.2
Tropical cyclone strength, related precipitation, and sea surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone tracks
Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight, R. W. Reynolds, T. R. Karl, O. N. Bulygina, and P. Zhai

  9:00 AM
6.3
The possible seasonal climate impact from anomalous frequency of recurving tropical cyclones
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and L. F. Bosart and C. Hosler

  9:30 AM
6.5
The Convective Cold Top and Quasi-Equilibrium
Christopher E. Holloway, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin

  9:45 AM
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  11:00 AM
6.6
U.S. snowfall trends for 1900–2005
Kenneth Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. Palecki, K. G. Hubbard, D. A. Robinson, K. Redmond, D. R. Easterling, and L. Ensor

  11:30 AM
6.8
Impact and indicator based perspectives of ENSO influence on U.S. climate during winter
Anthony Arguez, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Livezey, J. J. O'Brien, and S. R. Smith

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2007


Joint Session 6
Haurwitz Lecture (Joint between MesoSymposium and 19 CVC)
Location: 206B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Connections Between Mesoscale Processes and Climate Variability; and the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Papers:
  11:00 AM

1:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2007


7
Climate and Extreme Weather Events I
Location: 214B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Sponsor: 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center; Edward O'Lenic (Chair after the Break), NOAA/NWS/CPC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
7.1
Tropical cyclones, drought, and the seasonal reversal of the ENSO rainfall signal in the Philippines
Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo, H. Cristi, E. R. Verceles, F. D. Hilario, and R. Abastillas

  1:45 PM
7.2
  2:00 PM
7.3
  2:15 PM
7.4
U.S. temperature and precipitation extreme events, 1850–2005
Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. E. Kunkel and J. R. Angel

  3:00 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall and Raffle

  3:30 PM
7.7
The behavior of extreme cold-air outbreaks in a greenhouse-warmed world
Stephen J. Vavrus, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Walsh, D. Portis, and W. L. Chapman

  3:45 PM
7.8
Changes in North American extremes derived from daily weather data
Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and X. Zhang, M. B. India, and J. L. V. Aguirre

  4:00 PM
7.9
A Monte Carlo assessment of uncertainties in heavy precipitation frequency variations
Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, Illinois; and T. R. Karl and D. R. Easterling

  4:15 PM
Statistical significance of the trends in the extremes of monthly precipitation over the US
Salil Mahajan, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and R. Saravanan, G. North, and M. G. Genton

  4:45 PM
A diagnostic study of atmospheric blocking using Lyapunov exponents over a 50 year period
Athar Hussain, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo, C. Strong, and S. Dostoglou

  5:00 PM
An adaptive multi-regressive method for summer seasonal forecast in the Mediterranean area
Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology, National Research Council, Firenze, FI, Italy; and L. Genesio, A. Crisci, J. Primicerio, R. Benedetti, and G. Maracchi