87th AMS Annual Meeting

Monday, 15 January 2007
Extreme hydrologic events from an ensemble of CCSM3 climate change simulations
Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Marcia L. Branstetter, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. J. Erickson III
One of the key questions is whether the extremes in weather phenomena such as floods and droughts will increase in the future along with increasing global average temperatures. Daily and monthly results from a set of ensemble simulations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) were analyzed to detect extreme highs and lows over a hundred year period from 2000-2100. The ensemble of simulations was from an IPCC A2 climate change scenario. The number of extreme highs in daily precipitation was significantly higher during the latter part of the simulation period in some regions. This period also showed a significant change in runoff during the later years, wetter some places and drier other places.

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