87th AMS Annual Meeting

Wednesday, 17 January 2007
Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intra-seasonal prediction
Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pena and A. Vintzileos
Poster PDF (61.3 kB)
The focus of NOAA's THORPEX program is improving the skill and utility of forecasts over the 3-14 day lead-time range. No hard barrier, however, exists at day 14. Users require a forecast product suite that is seamless across different time ranges; and scientifically, predicting weather at shorter, or various statistics of weather at longer time ranges is based on the same laws of physics.

Recently, NOAA held a planning workshop where scientists from the community reviewed current activities and future plans related to intra-seasonal forecasting. This presentation will report on the open science questions that if solved the invited experts found most promising for bringing major advances in the area of intra-seasonal forecasting. The recommendations included research related to the observing system, data assimilation, numerical modeling, ensemble forecasting, as well as socio-economic applications for the 10-60 day forecast lead time range.

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