Thursday, 18 January 2007
Ensemble forecasts starting from coupled bred vectors with NASA coupled general circulation model
Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
The two-sided coupled breeding cycle has been implemented in NASA coupled general circulation model. Bred vectors rescaled with different norms are used to initialize the ensemble forecasts for El Niņo prediction. During a 10-year period (1993-2002), our results show that forecast experiments initialized from bred vectors showed a large improvement starting from the cold season. Our results also suggest that it helps to alleviate the tendency to overpredict warm/cold events.