87th AMS Annual Meeting

Tuesday, 16 January 2007: 4:00 PM
Fractal statistics of Sun and IMF, a practical storm prediction tool
210A (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Donald E. Cotten, City University of New York, Bayside, NY; and T. D. Cheung, P. J. Marchese, G. Tremberger Jr., L. P. Johnson, S. A. Austin, G. Brathwaite, M. Chow, L. Corrales, J. Espinoza, and K. Leon
Poster PDF (151.8 kB)
Past results presented by CUNY (2006 AMS Space Weather Symposium paper 3.10), related the Higuchi fractal dimension of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuation sigma-B (data taken from the ACE spacecraft), and found it to be lower when the fluctuation (sigma-B) was large. Sigma-B was found to correlate well with the peak flux of solar energetic particles (SEP). These results have been extended, along with consideration of SEP diffusion and the directions and strengths of the IMF and CME (coronal mass ejections) of the various selected storms. These efforts have related the fractal analysis of the IMF fluctuations preceding several magnetic storms to fractal analyses of the solar photospheric pixel brightness across the solar disc (taken from the SOHO spacecraft), near and including the identified eruption regions. It was thus found that a sub-eruption preceding the final eruption was itself preceded by a peak in the time sequence of fractal dimension and of the auto-correlation of the Solar pixel brightness data. The analysis also suggests that halo CME may be effective for triggering some late season hurricanes, near the autumnal equinox. CUNY expects to continue and to expand these statistical studies, and to attempt to develop the use of fractal dimension and other statistics as a magnetic storm forecasting tool.

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