87th AMS Annual Meeting

Monday, 15 January 2007
Satellite-Based Prediction Nowcasting Capability for the New York City Metropolitan Area
Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Bernard Mhando, NOAA/CREST at CUNY, New York, NY
Nowcasting is a forecasts of convective storms and heavy precipitation for time periods of less than a few hours. This is a project by NOAA-CREST (Cooperative Remote Sensing Science and Technology), which focuses on the use of geostationary satellite to provide nowcasting for the New York City Metropolitan area (NYCMA). Nowcasting is a challenging weather forecasting problem and accurate and reliable nowcasts of heavy precipitation would have enormous economic and social value to the NYCMA, which is the largest in the country. This project is being carried out cooperatively with NOAA's Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) of the National Weather Service, NESDIS, Office of Research and Applications, and the OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). Geostationary Satellites data at high temporal resolution (every 15 minutes) will be used as input to several nowcasting models for evaluation in the NYCMA. The results of this evaluation will be shared with our NOAA partners for use in their operational nowcasting programs, e.g., the NWS System for Convection Analysis and Nowcasting (SCAN). The models being considered for evaluation are: the EUMESAT-Rapid Developing Thunderstorm (RDT), the NOAA-NESDIS Hydro-Nowcaster (HN), and the NSSL WDSSII Multiscale Storm Identification and Forecast algorithm. The Hydro Nowcaster (HN) and the Rapid Developing Thunderstorm (RDT) models have been implemented at CREST and are in the testing stage utilizing data from June 20th 2006 and July 21st 2006, two severe storm days recorded in the NYCMA. The results will be analyzed and validated against the NWS Stage IV rainfall product and radar estimates of rainfall.

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