Wednesday, 17 January 2007: 3:30 PM
Analysis of ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone structure through extratropical transition
214A (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Operational model ensembles provide one approach to exploring – and potentially quantifying – the confidence in the numerical guidance provided to the forecaster. Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones (ET) is an especially difficult numerical forecasting challenge as the storm evolution appears to depend critically on phasing of the tropical storm and key systems in the midlatitude environment. Indeed, there is much evidence of problematic operational model forecasts of ET. ECMWF ensemble forecasts of storm structure evolution in the framework of the cyclone phase space (CPS) are evaluated for a number of recent North Pacific ET events. In particular, we evaluate the spread of the ensemble forecasts of storm structure trajectory through the CPS, as well as the more traditional metrics of track and intensity. We contrast the spread of the ensemble members with the spread of the 12-36h structure changes from the NOGAPS model for a similar set of North Atlantic ET cases.