87th AMS Annual Meeting

Wednesday, 17 January 2007: 2:30 PM
The influence of the MJO on Midlatitude statistical predictability
214A (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Richard Kleeman, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY; and M. Kadota
We examine the ensemble predictability of midlatitude weather under forcing from the tropics by the MJO. We use a primitive equation model of the atmosphere with an imbedded statistical/stochastic model of the MJO derived from the observations. Such a model has the advantage of having realistic representations of both the mid-latitudes as well as the MJO. In previous work without the MJO we found that predictability in the winter storm track region declines linearly to zero by 45 days. Here we examine whether this behaviour is affected by the MJO at any particular time scale. In addition we examine how the stochastic (broadband) nature of the MJO influences these conclusions.

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