Extended Abstract (988K)P1.3
Forecasting of Weather Bringing Disruption to Airport Operations Caused by Tropical Cyclones
Ping Cheung, Hong Kong Observatory, Kowloon, Hong Kong; and P. P. W. Li
In studying all past cases of significant flight delay and/or flight cancellation at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA), high crosswinds and/or severe turbulence brought by tropical cyclones (TCs) stand out as the top weather factor causing airport disruptions. Aviation users lend strong support for the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) to provide an advance alert on high impact weather conditions associated with TCs to assist their operational decision-making and planning. To support the operation of the alert, we have extended a statistical method for the forecasting of high winds in Hong Kong due to TCs to also cover crosswinds and severe turbulence at the airport. Based on historical wind and turbulence data associated with TCs, given the TC's forecast positions and intensities, a set of forecasting tools has been developed to predict the time series of the probability of crosswind and turbulence exceeding pre-defined thresholds at HKIA. To account for the uncertainty of forecast position and intensity, ensemble TC forecasts based on NWP models, in addition to the official TC forecasts, are used. This paper presents the design of the forecasting tools and their performance during the past year. We will also discuss the ways to further improve the tools in the future.
Poster Session 1, Convection, Decision Support Systems, and Air Traffic Management Posters
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
Previous paper Next paper