Extended Abstract (512K)JP1.27
Correlating Convective Bursts in Tropical Cyclones with Rapid Intensification using TRMM Precipitation Radar Reflectivity Profiles
Andrew B. Hagen, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. Rogers
Previous research has shown that rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is often associated with the presence of sustained, deep convective events known as convective bursts (CBs). However, not all CBs necessarily lead to RI. In this study, an analysis was conducted using TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity profiles of CBs in TCs to document whether there are any systematic differences in the vertical structure of CBs for cases that undergo RI vs. cases that do not undergo RI. Convective burst cases were divided into two groups. In one group, a CB was followed by a period of rapid intensification of the TC, and in the other group, no RI occurred following the CB. Additionally, analyses of the percentage of cloud tops <-60 °C within 200 km of the center of the TC are being carried out for several cases. Finally, differences in the symmetry of cold cloud tops between the RI cases and the non-RI cases will be examined to see if shear could play a role in whether RI occurs following a CB. Analyses of the reflectivity profiles, the asymmetry/shear data, and the percentage of <-60 °C cloud tops within 200 km of the center are still being performed, and the results will be presented at the conference. This study may provide evidence to aid hurricane forecasters in determining whether RI will occur given that a CB is present in a TC.
Joint Poster Session 1, Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics Posters
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
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