Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium
19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

JP1.21

Multimodel comparison study for hurricane case

Duanjun Lu, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Reddy and Q. L. Williams

A hurricane is an intense atmospheric circulation featured with the strong multiscale interactions between convective scale, few kilometers, and larger scale condition, typically on the order of several hundred to thousand kilometers. With the identical initialization and lateral boundary condition, three models, WRF/ARW, WRF/NMM and HWRF, have been applied to a hurricane case to investigate models' performances on hurricane track and intensity. The preliminary result shows that ARW has the best skill in hurricane intensity and track. Both WRF/NMM and HWRF lack forecasting skill in intensity. Increasing spatial resolution cannot improve model capability for intensity in terms of either maximum sea surface wind speed or sea level pressure . More parameter comparisons including precipitation and heat flux will be presented.

Joint Poster Session 1, Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics Posters
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B

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