Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium
19th Conference on Probability and Statistics


Development of a new storm surge index for prediction of storm surge associated with landfalling tropical cyclones

Mark R. Jordan II, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and C. A. Clayson

Providing a relatively simple, yet effective, method for predicting tropical cyclone generated storm surge would be beneficial for surge-prone nations worldwide. Many vulnerable countries do not have access to highly sophisticated storm surge models, and these areas may find an alternate method for surge prediction useful. This research uses dimensional analysis to quantify the sensitivity of storm surge to changes in several variables, such as a tropical cyclone's maximum winds, a tropical cyclone's radius of maximum winds, and a tropical cyclone's forward speed. These variables are combined into a storm surge index, and this index is calculated for all landfalling Atlantic hurricanes between 1985 and 2006. Finally, extensive correlation analysis is presented to determine the relative success of the storm surge index when compared to actual storm surge heights.

Joint Poster Session 1, Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics Posters
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B

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