Extended Abstract (2.5M)J6.5
Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA)
Marilyn M. Wolfson, MIT, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Dupree, R. M. Rasmussen, M. Steiner, S. G. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt
Research over the last 10 years primarily funded by the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) has led to very successful development of forecasts of both convective and winter storms, both heuristic and numerical models, for use in aviation applications. We have now reached a point where there are several overlapping capabilities, and the smorgasbord of choices has become confusing. It is also now clear that aviation-impacting winter and summer conditions can exist simultaneously – even within a single terminal area – so a consolidated forecast will have to work equally well for all storm conditions. It is also clear that advances in computing, data processing and communications allow for large-scale, high resolution forecast systems that were prohibitive just 10 years ago, but that now may represent the most efficient and cost-effective architecture. Other government agencies in addition to FAA have needs for aviation-oriented forecasts, including at least Air Force and other DoD, Homeland Defense, National Weather Service, and NASA. Further efficiencies will be realized by consolidating these efforts as well. These goals are well-aligned with the goals of the Next Generation Air Transportation System's Joint Program and Development Office.
In this paper, we report on the results of the CoSPA design effort and initial experimentation from 2006-7. Included will be analysis of the technical content of the existing forecast systems, assessment of the needs of the various government agencies, and a plan for consolidating the existing and future capabilities into a single aviation storm forecast. Our goal is a CONUS-wide system that initially provides 0-2 hr animated high-resolution forecasts during both summer and winter, and that eventually forecasts storms with 8-12 hr lead time.
This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government.
Joint Session 6, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Part II
Wednesday, 23 January 2008, 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, 226-227
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