Recorded presentationJ4.4
Operational tropical cyclone wind speed probability products from the National Hurricane Center
Richard D. Knabb, NOAA/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. Mainelli and M. DeMaria
Tropical cyclone wind speed probability products became operational at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 2006 for systems in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The new products include text and graphical versions that are updated with each forecast cycle for each active tropical cyclone. The probabilities are also being made available via the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). These products provide users with information regarding the chances of experiencing winds of tropical storm force and hurricane force at specific locations within the five-day forecast period. They also indicate, in probabilistic terms, the range of possibilities regarding when these wind conditions could begin at specific locations. The performance of these products during 2005 and 2006 will be examined, including how they have been used by the media and emergency managers. Some minor changes to the products that were implemented in 2007 will also be described. Challenges and ongoing work will also be briefly discussed, including investigating relationships between the probabilities and NHC coastal watches and warnings, and eventually providing the probabilities in formats (such as GIS) to facilitate more direct use in software applications used by emergency managers. Recorded presentation
Joint Session 4, Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics 2
Tuesday, 22 January 2008, 11:00 AM-12:00 PM, R02-R03
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