Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium
19th Conference on Probability and Statistics


National Hurricane Center forecast verification

James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL

This presentation will discuss the accuracy of National Hurricane Center official track and intensity forecasts in recent years, as well as the accuracy of the track and intensity guidance models. Emphasis will be on official accuracy and skill trends over the past 15 years, current forecast biases and distributions, and the use of consensus techniques.

Joint Poster Session 1, Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics Posters
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B

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