P1.1
Statistical guidance for Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts from the Localized Aviation MOS Program
David E. Rudack, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) are produced regularly four times daily, with amendments as necessary, and are critical to decision making regarding aircraft movement in the National Airspace System. Aviation forecasters use model guidance to assist with the forecasting of sensible weather in the TAFs. Such sensible weather elements include clouds, visibility, obstruction to vision, winds, weather, and probabilities of thunderstorms and precipitation.
The National Weather Service's Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has been providing statistical guidance in the form of Model Output Statistics (MOS) to assist in preparing official forecasts since the 1970's. The Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) is designed to use the most recent surface observations to statistically update the MOS guidance, and to provide updated guidance for elements needed by aviation forecasters.
In an effort to support the TAFs and other aviation forecasts, the LAMP system was recently redeveloped to run hourly and produce short-range aviation forecast guidance at one hour projections out to 25 hours. The redeveloped LAMP system has been running operationally since July of 2006.
This paper provides a brief overview of the LAMP system and the techniques used in producing short-term LAMP categorical forecasts such as ceiling height, visibility, and IFR vs. VFR conditions. The skill of the LAMP system is demonstrated by verifying ceiling height, visibility, and IFR vs.VFR conditions against persistence, the Global Forecast System (GFS) MOS, and direct model output from numerical weather prediction models that output ceiling and visibility forecasts. In addition, LAMP products available to assist with aviation forecasting are detailed and presented. The final portion of this paper addresses the current status and future plans of the LAMP system.
Poster Session 1, Convection, Decision Support Systems, and Air Traffic Management Posters
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
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