P1.19
Nexrad-In-Space (NIS): Anticipated advances in hurricane monitoring & track-intensity predictions
Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and V. Chandrasekar, S. S. Chen, G. J. Holland, E. Im, R. Kakar, W. E. Lewis, F. D. Marks, S. Tanelli, and G. J. Tripoli
In another presentation in this session, Im et al. has described the engineering design for a Ka-band Doppler radar that we have developed intended for flight on a geostationary satellite platform for observations of rain microphysics and kinematics within tropical storms and hurricanes on a high-frequency time-lapse basis. The notional design would produce 1-hour sampling with 12 km spatial resolution at nadir, extending to ~14 km resolution at the radar's 4º scan limit -- yielding a 5300-km diameter Earth disk (equivalent to coverage of approximately 48º lat by 48º lon). Because of its Doppler capacity and repeat scan-imaging capability, the name Nexrad-In-Space (NIS) has been chosen to denote its ground-radar heritage. The NIS radar is designed to measure line-of-sight 35 GHz reflectivity and Doppler velocity profiles over the entire 5300-km Earth disk scene, with an along-beam resolution of 300 m enabled by pulse compression, and a sensitivity (minimum detectable signal) of 5 dBZ. Along with moderate and heavy precipitation, the relatively high sensitivity would enable detection of light rain, freezing rain, and precipitating ice hydrometeors -- including snow flakes, aggregates, and graupel. Doppler acuity is ~0.3 m s-1, and for off-nadir views when the actual horizontal velocity vector is not orthogonal to the viewing plane of the radar beam, it would be possible to recover horizontal winds along with the vertically-oriented line of sight velocities. The NIS radar samples by use of a 35-m diameter, deployable antenna made from a strong, lightweight membrane material (likely with shape memory) in which two transmit-receive array pairs glide along a rotating arm atop the satellite facing the antenna, thus creating a dual-beam, spiral-feed combined profile image of both reflectivity and Doppler velocity. With this notional feed design, the combined images are repeated every 60 minutes, with an allowance for increased sampling frequency by increasing the number of transmit-receive array pairs. In the case of a storm that moves beyond the notional scan limit of ±24ºlatitude, the radar-satellite system could be articulated up to ~2.5º which would extend the monitoring range to beyond ±40º latitude. Notably, the NIS design does not require rotation of the radar or of the spacecraft, and eliminates the complexity of electronic scanning.
The hourly scan frequency and Doppler velocity capacity of the NIS satellite provide more than just an evolutionary step in the ability to observe mesoscale processes around and within tropical cyclone environments. Such observations could be taken of a storm from genesis through its breakup over land, i.e., from out-to-sea through to landfall and beyond. By combining high sensitivity reflectivity and Doppler velocity information, it would be possible to follow the 3-dimensional structure of a storm, acquiring dense observations which through direct data assimilation could guide the prediction of the storm with a high resolution, non-hydrostatic cloud resolving model. Such a model would be able to capture the various stages of storm intensification and de-intensification in conjunction with eyewall replacement, which arise through mesoscale interactions involving surface heat and moisture fluxes, fine-scale vorticity growth and transports, fine-scale vertical fluxes of momentum and vorticity, development and mergers of vortical hot towers (VHTs), and mesoscale convergence of moisture within the storm's boundary layer. Moreover, over the larger domain, the observations could capture outer storm features related to steering flow that might help establish better predictions of track and along-track velocity.
To draw attention to the potential for NIS observations to improve hurricane track and intensity predictions, various observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) have been conducted to demonstrate how non-transformed line-of-sight 35 GHz reflectivity and Doppler velocity observations from a NIS satellite used with an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation system coupled to a CRM can improve track, along-track velocity, intensity, and precipitation production forecasts. The CRM chosen for the OSSE research is the Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (NMS) developed by Professor Tripoli for applications with mesoscale convective weather systems. In addition, a selection of results pertaining to scientific advances that would be made possible in understanding and predicting hurricanes, drawn from discussions and deliberations at the First NIS Science and Technology Road Map Workshop held at the University of Miami during 10-11 April 2007, will be presented.
Poster Session 1, Recent Developments in Atmospheric Applications of Radar and lidar
Tuesday, 22 January 2008, 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Exhibit Hall B
Previous paper Next paper