Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium
19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

JP1.24

WRF forecasts/simulations of Tropical cyclones Debby and Helene during the SOP-3 NAMMA/AMMA field campaign

Gregory S. Jenkins, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and S. Chiao and M. Cox

During the period of August 15-September 30 2006, the downstream component of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Special Observing period 3 (SOP3) occurred. NASA's contribution to AMMA – denoted as NAMMA included aircraft (DC-8) and enhanced ground measurements (Cape Verde, Senegal). As part of the field campaign, the ARW version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with a horizontal resolution of 20 km was used in real-time with the goal of forecasting convective systems entering Senegal. However, WRF also provided guidance of organized precipitation events by accurately forecasting African Easterly Waves (AEWs). One benefit of using WRF over West Africa was for the potential of forecasting Tropical Cyclogenesis over the extreme Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Two such systems in fact formed within relative close proximity to the West African Coastline – Tropical Storm Debby and TD-8 (which became hurricane Helene). In this presentation, we show results of the WRF forecasts of tropical-cyclogenesis associated with these two systems. Specifically, the transition processes of mesoscale convective systems from continent to ocean are investigated. We also show results from additional higher grid resolution sensitivity simulations associated with TS Debby and TD-8. The results are compared to satellite (i.e., TRMM) and aircraft measurements as well as ground measurements (i.e., raingagues and NASA Polarimatric radar).

Joint Poster Session 1, Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics Posters
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B

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