P1.9
Medium-Range Ensemble Hydrologic Forecasting for Western Washington State
Andrew W. Wood, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and S. Shukla and N. Voisin
Medium range ensemble forecasts of temperature and precipitation from the NOAA MRF Reforecast dataset are used as the basis for hydrologic prediction in the western portion of Washington State. The meteorological forecast fields are downscaled via analogue techniques to serve as input to a real-time hydrologic modeling system that we have implemented at 1/16th degree spatial resolution. Although, the daily time step streamflow output of this system is insufficient for flood hydrograph prediction, the system's predicted runoff and soil moisture fields provide a basis for distributed flood risk prediction in a domain that is particularly vulnerable to late fall and early winter flooding. Forecast system outputs also have potential relevance for water management decisions related to winter streamflow augmentation in the Yakima River basin. We describe the implementation of the forecasting approach and present preliminary results.
Poster Session 1, Weather to Climate Scale Hydrological Forecasting
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
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