JP1.41
Eye & eyewall climatology derived from reconnaissance vortex reports and their use toward using an eyewall phase diagram to improve hurricane intensity forecasts
David Joseph Piech, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart
Over the past few years the environment of a tropical cyclone has been studied at great length while the storm itself has not. This can be done by forming a climatology of reconnaissance vortex reports from the Atlantic basin between 1989 and 2005. This data, which is collected from dropsondes during flights into tropical disturbances, includes eye size, pressure, temperature, dew point, winds and other pertinent information. Based on this climatology an eyewall phase diagram was developed that shows the evolution of a storm using mean sea level pressure and eyewall diameter. Frequency plots of eyewall type, Julian day, latitude, longitude, temperature, dew point, and intensity change were also created.
The main goal of this project, besides providing a database/climatology of reconnaissance vortex data for future study, is to see if this data can be used to improve short term intensity forecasts. By examining various case studies and relating changes in eyewall structure with the theory of Sawyer-Eliassen a better understanding of hurricane intensity change may emerge.
Joint Poster Session 1, Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics Posters
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
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