Monday, 21 January 2008
Developing Tools for Calibrating Four-Dimensional Aviation Weather Forecasts
Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
At the core of the proposed NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) capability will be a four-dimensional digital data set. The National Weather Service is developing software that will provide aviation weather forecasters the capability to generate gridded forecasts of weather elements such as turbulence and aircraft icing severity. By using numerical model-based guidance grids as input to scientific algorithms, forecasters can continuously update a “4D weather data cube.” Interactive calibration software then allows the forecaster to make adjustments to the guidance as necessary, based on recent observations, satellite and radar data, combined with forecaster experience. These software tools are designed so that adjusted calibrations can be interpolated vertically through multiple atmospheric levels, as well as temporally through the forecast period. By using this feature, forecasters are able to preserve the spatial and temporal continuity inherent in the original model guidance grids.
This paper provides an overview of the Interactive Calibration in Four Dimensions (IC4D) software. A background on the need for a human interface is given, and a brief description of the aviation model guidance is presented. Included is a discussion of the calibration tools that are being developed to allow interaction with the resultant four-dimensional weather data cube. It is envisioned that the data cube will form the basis for a host of aviation products and will be used as input for air traffic decision assistance tools. Examples of these products and tools are described.
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