Wednesday, 23 January 2008: 8:45 AM
Understanding variations in ENSO impacts through a pacemaker ensemble
217-218 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
We investigate variations between ENSO events in an eight-member ensemble of pacemaker integrations from 1950-2002. We find that in the majority of events and members summer monsoon rainfall is increased over Bangladesh following an El Niņo event in the boreal winter. However, we also find that one or more members of the ensemble typically produces weak or negative precipitation anomalies over Bangladesh, indicating other processes are modulating or overwhelming the influence of the tropical Pacific. When we compare ensemble members with positive precipitation anomalies to those with negative anomalies, we find the largest and most consistent differences occur in the Indian Ocean during summer. This suggests that large, positive SST anomalies in this region act to counter the influence of ENSO on Bangladesh and may help to explain observed variations between ENSO events.
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