Broadly, Atlantic hurricane activity (as quantified by “accumulated cyclone energy”, or ACE) is positively correlated with various measures of West African precipitation anomalies. However, this correlation is neither especially strong nor particularly stable over a period of decades or more. For forecasting purposes, it would be useful to be able to know in which years the West African precipitation is or is not a good predictor of ACE. Ongoing work by the authors shows that West African precipitation anomalies are most skillful in predicting ACE when other large scale environmental factors (such as sea surface temperatures, the Southern Oscillation, and wind shear) are detrimental to tropical cyclogenesis. This paper discusses the statistical methodology used to establish these relationships. Possible physical mechanisms are also discussed.