The predictability of winter season precipitation forecasts for the Indo-Pacific region is estimated using coupled and uncoupled versions of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFS). A series of “perfect” model predictability experiments are performed for 120-days for both the coupled and uncoupled versions of the model.

The 1-month lead forecasts of precipitation are evaluated in the Indo-Pacific region. Preliminary results indicate that the uncoupled model has greater precipitation variability and a larger ensemble spread than the coupled model in much of the Indo-Pacific. Where the variability is overestimated and the ensemble spread is larger, the uncoupled model has much less predictability than the coupled model. These results, along with the results of SST sensitivity experiments will be presented.