tropical cyclones (tropical storms, subtropical storms, and
hurricanes)
have become topics of great interest and research within the past
three
years. Some recent scientific articles have reported a large increase
in tropical cyclone energy, numbers, and windspeeds in many basins
during the last few decades in association with warmer sea surface
temperatures. These increases in tropical cyclone activity have been
linked to man-made greenhouse gas changes.
It is not disputed (by this speaker) that anthropogenic forcing has
been the cause of at least a substantial portion of the observed
warming during the 20th Century. It is likely that some increase in
tropical cyclone peak windspeed has occurred and will continue to
occur if the climate continues to warm. However, whether greenhouse
gas warming is related in increases in tropical cyclone activity is
NOT
the most relevant question. One needs to address instead: What is
the SENSITIVITY of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and overall
activity to greenhouse gas forcing? Is it indeed large today, or is
it likely to be a small factor even several decades from now?
These questions as well as an attempt to reconcile theoretial/numerical
modeling studies with some recent (well publicized) observational
papers will be addressed in the talk. Finally, how these greenhouse
gas warming changes compare versus other alterations in our society
(increased population and infrastructure in vulnerable coastal
locations) will also be discussed.
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