both contains and introduces uncertainty into the synoptic-scale weather
pattern. Inherent to this is the meso- and synoptic-scale wind field
evolution associated with the transitioning cyclone. On the mesoscale,
this wind field evolution is manifest through the outward movement of the
radius of maximum winds; on the synoptic scale, it is manifest through
the acceleration of the wind field at outer radii. To date, no studies
have considered the mechanism(s) by which this evolution occurs, with
previous informal theories failing to capture the observed evolution.
This leads to uncertainties in operational observations and forecasts of
the wind field during ET.
In this study, the wind field evolution associated with a representative
cold-core ETing cyclone, North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Bonnie (1998),
is analyzed. The synoptic-scale wind field evolution is shown to be a
function of the increasingly asymmetric nature of the cyclone leading to
both responses in the height and temperature gradients driving the wind
field as well as enhanced momentum transport. The mesoscale wind field
evolution is shown to be a function of the transition of the cyclone from
a warm-core to cold-core vortex. Results from spatial analyses of the
wind field and related meteorological fields, a momentum budget analysis,
and a balanced secondary circulation model are shown to complement the
findings, ultimately providing insight into a previously uncertain
process.
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