Extended Abstract (820K)4.1
Use of operationally available weather forecast products beyond 6 hours for air traffic strategic planning
John Huhn, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and M. Duquette, D. R. Bright, S. J. Weiss, R. S. Schneider, J. Racy, and B. Sherman
The National System Strategy Team (NSST) at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center in Herndon, VA is responsible for the daily strategic planning process of air traffic management initiatives across the National Airspace System (NAS). This process becomes highly challenging during days with convective weather outbreaks. The MITRE Corporation's Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) and the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are collaborating on the utility of currently available operational convective forecast products such as the SPC Day 1 and Day 2 Categorical and Probabilistic Outlooks, as well as specialized aviation weather guidance generated from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) model output, into the planning process. These additional information sources cover time periods well beyond the scope of the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP), which is the FAA's primary planning tool for Air Traffic Management in the NAS.
The premise of this paper is to illustrate the potential benefits in providing Air Traffic Managers with a systemic approach to strategically manage air traffic prior to the 6 Hour CCFP issuances when synoptic scale convective events are forecast to occur in the NAS. Guidance from "Outlook" information beyond 6 hours can aid in the confidence of strategic decision making for traffic flow management initiatives when used in conjunction with and prior to the 6 hour CCFP. The use of SPC convective forecast products is proposed as a way to augment the CCFP and recognize specific clues that can lead to a high impact convective weather event for aviation earlier in the planning process. By illustrating the utility of these products into an "Outlook" planning timeframe (beyond 6 hrs), enhancement of the strategic planning process to mitigate large delay scenarios could be achieved. Case studies will be used to further demonstrate the potential utility of these products.
Session 4, Integrating Weather with ATM - III
Tuesday, 13 January 2009, 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Room 132A
Next paper
Recorded presentation