Seventh Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

3.4

Regime Dependent Precipitation Type Forecasting

Tyler C. McCandless, Penn State University, University Park, PA

An important aspect of winter weather forecasting includes determining what precipitation types are actually occurring. Forecasters rely on accurate weather observations in order to forecast the rain/snow/sleet line and amount of precipitation. However, these weather observations are only taken once per hour, only occur at airports and other COOP locations, and allow for the potential for human error. The Polarmetric Radar, combined with a regime based post-processing, can provide an accurate determination of precipitation type for all locations within the radar scan. A K-means clustering algorithm is used to cluster weather variables measured by the Polarmetric Radar. These clusters are then used to determine the precipitation type, providing weather forecasters with an instantaneous view of current precipitation types.

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Session 3, Forecasting Contest
Tuesday, 13 January 2009, 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Room 125A

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