J12.2
Upcoming improvements in NOAA modeling toward meeting NextGen aviation requirements
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and G. DiMego
In this paper, we will summarize key aspects in planned improvements to NOAA modeling capabilities serving aviation, from regional hourly-updated models to global models.
Improvements in aviation modeling in the next 2 years:
- Rapid Refresh (RR) – covering North America with hourly update cycle
- High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) – covering CONUS and Alaska with hourly-updated storm-resolving model initialized by latest 3-d radar reflectivity and radial wind data
- North American Mesoscale (NAM) model with 6-h update cycle
- Storm-scale nests inside NAM including CONUS and Alaska
- Global Forecast System (GFS) with 6-h update cycle.
Additions over the 2012-2020 period
- ensemble-based Rapid Refresh by 2013 (6 members)
- hourly updated global model forecast information after NextGen MOC (Midterm Operating Capability)
- ensemble-based HRRR forecasts after 2015
- improved data assimilation using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and/or 4-d variational (4dVAR) techniques
- improved satellite and radar assimilation
- addition of inline chemistry to improve visibility, cloud, and precipitation forecasts for aviation (e.g., RR-Chem, HRRR-chem)
- ensemble-based post-processing for aviation uncertainty/probability forecasts (discussed in companion paper)
Joint Session 12, Weather Information Users: The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), Part 2
Wednesday, 20 January 2010, 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, B314
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