Regime-based persistence probability of ceiling and visibility
This paper examines regime-based performance of persistence in the context of operational C&V forecasting. Based on analyses of long-term records of hourly observations at airports in Canada, it has been found that under specific types of forecast situations, or weather regimes, the expected duration of persistence can be significantly different than the average. A regime-based approach highlights the need to account for variability in the observations and shows promise in improving the ability to forecast change. There are indications that using persistence as a benchmark without factoring in regime may at times be inappropriate.
Supplementary webpage: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/science/arma/aram2010
Supplementary URL: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/science/arma/aram2010